Budgets/Spending/Market Size

One of the most closely watched holiday forecasts has good news for retailers.   The National Retail Federation said it expects holiday retail sales in November and December to increase between 3.6% and 4% for a total of $678.75 billion to $682 billion. In 2016, up from $655.8 billion last year. The NRF forecast, which excludes automobiles, gasoline and restaurants, would meet or exceed last year’s growth of 3.6% and the five-year average of 3.5%.   

Fake news. Or, at the very least, over-exaggerated news. That’s what I call the reports about the death of retail. Retail sales are up $121.5 billion (through the first seven months of the year) and the holiday forecasts look promising, with Deloitte predicting a healthy 4 to 4.5% increase over last season.

Unfazed by store closures, shoppers plan to get most of their holiday shopping done in-store this year.    Nearly three-quarters of consumers (71%) plan to do the majority of their holiday shopping in physical stores — the same percentage from a similar poll a year ago. Additionally, the vast majority (88%) plan to at least visit stores this holiday season.  

More and more Americans plan to get an early start on their holiday shopping. And they also plan on spending more.    Nearly half (45%) of Americans plan to start holiday shopping before November, with one in four starting before October, according to RetailMeNot's 2017 Holiday Retail Trends and Guide. Retailers are capitalizing on this earlier start: Nearly 80% indicated they will begin holiday marketing efforts earlier this year.   

Hurricanes Harvey and Harvey had a similar impact on retail sales and the toll was significant on online spending as well as spending in physical stores.  

Merchants’ fraud costs are a growing expense — and the pace shows no sign of slowing.   Fraud losses and management eat 8% of the average e-commerce retailer’s revenue, up from 7.6% in 2016, according to “2017 Financial Impact of Fraud Study: Exploring the Financial Impact of Fraud in a Digital World.” The report is from Vesta Corp. and Javelin Strategy & Research.  

There is good news for retailers in a just-released survey on Halloween spending.   Americans will splurge on costumes, candy and pumpkins for a record $9.1 billion in Halloween spending this year, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That's up 8.3% from last year’s previous record of $8.4 billion.  

Overall positive economic conditions will propel retail sales online as well as of offline this coming holiday season.   That's according to a report by Forrester, which predicts that U.S. online holiday sales will grow 12% to reach $129 billion in 2017, compared to $115 billion last year. Offline holiday sales will inch up 0.3%, to reach $549 billion in 2017.  

An uptick in consumer spending could drive sales as high as $1.05 trillion this holiday season.   Retail holiday sales should rise a healthy 4% to 4.5% over last year's shopping season — a factor that could drive sales between $1.04 trillion and $1.05 trillion between November 2017 and January 2018, according to the annual retail holiday sales forecast from the firm’s retail and distribution practices. (Holiday sales are seasonally adjusted, and exclude motor vehicles and gasoline.)