Study: Most shoppers willing to substitute, downgrade holiday gifts to save money
The impact of tariffs on gift prices will be a key determining factor for a large majority of holiday shoppers.
Four-in-five (80%) shoppers worry tariffs will increase prices, and more than 70% say they will buy fewer gifts if that happens, according to decision intelligence platform Project44’s new 2025 State of Consumer Holiday Shopping survey.
Four-in-10 shoppers have capped their holiday budgets at $500. When asked how they will manage within those limits, 82% said they are willing to downgrade or substitute gifts if it means saving money. Three-quarters of those surveyed said they would switch to domestic goods this holiday season if tariffs increase the prices on imported goods.
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Even as consumers spend less, Project44’s survey found that more than half of all holiday budgets are now allocated online, and 80% of shoppers say they will use online marketplaces this season. Nearly half of consumers plan to spend the same online as last year, while more than a quarter (28%) expect to spend less. When asked what matters most, shoppers pointed to free shipping and easy returns, while sustainability initiatives, premium delivery services, or other “nice-to-haves” ranked much lower.
Confidence in delivery is strong, as 85% of respondents believe their gifts will arrive on time. However, nearly half (45%) of consumers say they are unlikely to shop again with a retailer who misses a promised delivery date. More than half (56%) of shoppers say they are not willing to spend extra for faster shipping.
Last year, 35% of consumers began holiday shopping before October. This year, only 25% have started that early, according to the survey, as more shoppers are waiting until October-November and even mid-November to December to begin buying gifts. Project44 says this pattern may signal that many consumers are holding out for better deals around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, further reflecting a fiscally conscious mindset.
“We are entering another holiday season defined by uncertainty and change,” said Project44. “Economic pressures, tariffs, inflation, and shrinkflation are reshaping how consumers plan and spend. Shoppers are setting stricter budgets, trading down to smaller gifts, and delaying purchases until later in the season. They are pragmatic and cost-conscious, making decisions based less on brand loyalty or values and more on affordability and reliability.”
For its report, Project44 surveyed 2,036 consumers across the United States in August 2025.
