Circana: Expect less predictable, more spread out holiday season
Consumer volatility and expectations of higher prices will shape the timing and performance of the holiday season.
That’s according to Circana, which expects that the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable and more spread out than any other year. The firm's annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey revealed that more than 80% of holiday shoppers expect prices to be higher this year as a result of tariffs and other economic factors.
Given the expectations, consumers plan to spend $796 on holiday shopping this year, which is 3% higher than last year’s spending intentions. Higher prices also may result in fewer gifts to wrap, as 31% of shoppers say they will buy fewer items this holiday. And 34% of holiday shoppers say they will take advantage of more deals this year.
Timing
The expectation of higher prices will impact what, where, and when consumers shop, with more holiday shoppers planning on getting an earlier start to avoid possible future price increases and take advantage of early season promotions, Circana said.
Almost half of consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 24% have already started or even finished, up nearly four percentage points from last year. Black Friday remains the most popular of the traditional shopping days, with 19% planning it as the kick-off to their holiday shopping. The number of consumers planning to wait till December is the lowest (19%) it has been in recent years.
Other findings from the survey are below.
- Practicality takes center stage as consumers are planning on spending more on things such as home appliances, housewares and sporting goods.
- Consumers also plan to spend more on lower cost indulgences like beauty products. But planned spending is down for some of the traditionally higher ticket purchases including technology, electronics, and home improvement products.
- Nearly two-thirds of consumers indicate that their household grocery costs will have an impact on their holiday shopping this year.
[READ MORE: Adobe: U.S. online holiday sales to hit new record of $253B]
“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day. Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys, and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment — whether price or priority.”
