Adobe: U.S. online holiday sales to hit new record of $253B
Strong performance during peak holiday shopping days is expected to help lift U.S, online shopping spending to new heights this year — although its growth will be slower compared to last year.
U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $253.4 billion online this holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), according to Adobe's 2025 online shopping forecast. This represents a 5.3% increase from 2024, when Adobe recorded the current all-time-high of $241.4 billion. However, the growth would be slower compared to the 2024 holiday season, when online sales increased 8.7% year over year.
[Adobe: Record U.S. online holiday spending passes $241 billion]
Adobe’s prediction is based on several factors, including:
Peak shopping days
A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day, up from seven days during the 2024 holiday season, according to Adobe analysis. Cyber Week, the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, totaling $43.7 billion (up 6.3% year over year).
Cyber Monday is forecast to remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year at $14.2 billion (up 6.3% year over year). However, Black Friday is expected to see higher rate of growth this season, rising 8.3% year over year at $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving Day, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9% year over year).
Mobile shopping
Mobile devices are expected to drive a record 56.1% share of online spend compared to desktop devices. This represents $142.7 billion, up 8.5% year over year.
Adobe has tracked a greatly accelerating shift towards mobile shopping over the past several years. During the 2020 holiday season, Adobe found that mobile devices accounted for just 40% of online spend.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL)
Flexible buy now, pay later (BNPL) spending is expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend (up 11% year over year). This is roughly $2 billion more than during the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend.
BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to reach $1.04 billion, up 5% year over year, while its usage on Black Friday is set to rise 11% year over year to $761.8 million.
Adobe also predicts the vast majority of BNPL spend is set to come through mobile devices during the holiday season at 79% share compared to desktop, representing $15.6 billion in spending (up 8.3% year over year).
Discounting
Adobe expects significant discounts this holiday season — up to 28% off listed price — that will be on par with the 2024 season. Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 28% off listed price (down slightly from 30.1% in 2024), while discounts for toys are set to hit 27% (compared to 28% in 2024).
Competitive discounts are also expected in apparel at 25% (vs. 23.2% in 2024), TVs at 23% (vs. 24.2% in 2024), computers at 23% (vs. 22.8% in 2024), sporting goods at 19% (vs. 19.5% in 2024), appliances at 18% (vs. 19.2% in 2024) and furniture at 18% (vs. 19% in 2024).
The deepest discounts are expected to land throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being the final date for online shoppers to obtain the best deals.
AI-enabled shopping
Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites as measured by shoppers clicking on a link during the 2024 holiday season, with traffic increasing 1,300% year over year. For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
Social advertising
Advertising across social media platforms is expected to be a substantial growth driver this holiday season, with its share of online revenue (purchases attributed to social traffic) expected to rise by 51% year over year.
In affiliates and partners, which includes social media influencers, Adobe expects still notable year over year growth of 14%
Prime Big Deal Days forecast
Adobe expects pre-season discounts in October will influence some consumers to start their holiday shopping early. For the Amazon Prime Big Deal Days extravaganza, which Adobe says is now an industrywide event for e-commerce with deals happening broadly across U.S. retailers, Adobe forecasts $9 billion will be spent on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8, representing 6.2% growth year over year.
Across the two-day event, Adobe expects BNPL to drive $723 million in online spend (up 8.1% year over year and mobile shopping to account for a 50.5% share of overall spend compared to desktop shopping across both days, representing $4.55 billion in spend (up 12.7% year over year).
Based on Adobe Analytics data, this holiday e-commerce analysis covers more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.
