Numerator: Inflation cools, consumers still worried
Consumers’ concerns about higher prices remains near record highs even as inflation slowed in July.
Prices for everyday household purchases decreased 0.4% in July following a 0.7% increase in June and a 0.5% increase in May, according to the Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index. In July, prices for everyday goods are up 2.6% versus a year ago, down from 3.4% in June.
The Numerator CGPI measures the prices consumers actually pay for everyday goods and provides context for how inflation differs across consumer groups and product sectors, accounting for real-time changes in purchasing behavior, including brand and retailer switching.
While inflation may be cooling, consumers aren't feeling much relief. In Numerator's July 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of over 2,000 U.S. consumers, 39% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, nearly matching the record high reached in May 2026. (Numerator has tracked consumer sentiment and financial outlook monthly since January 2024.)
Other insights from the Numerator report are below:
•Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 35.1% and 39.0%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 versus the 33.2% national average. Low-income and Gen Z consumers are experiencing higher inflation in part because they spend more on quick-service restaurants than the average consumer.
•Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 53.9% since January 2018, well above the 33.2% rise across the overall consumer basket.
•Consumers in the South census region experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, however that gap closed in July.
[READ MORE: Survey: Finding bargains 'essential' to consumers' household budgets]
"Consumers are adapting as prices change,” said Paul Stanley, senior economist at Numerator. “By trading down what they buy and where they shop, they reduced the inflation they experienced by 0.4 percentage points last month compared with making the same purchases they did a year ago — the largest impact we've seen in more than a year. As inflation and gas prices cooled in July, consumers didn't need to make as many tradeoffs to manage rising costs.”
