Survey: Consumers expect inflation to impact holiday spending plans
Economic uncertainty is expected to make shoppers more diligent when holiday shopping this year.
Almost half (45%) of U.S. consumers say that political and geopolitical change has shifted their outlook on the holidays, according to a new survey from Basis, an operating system provider for autonomous advertising. More than a third (35%) of consumers plan to spend more in 2026 than in 2025, and among them, 64% say the primary reason is inflation driving up the cost of gifts.
Among consumers planning to spend less, 47% say they are worried about the economy, while 44% cite more expenses to prioritize and 39% say uncertainty about the future is a factor. Nearly six-in-10 (57%) consumers plan to look for deals and discounts more actively this year, while 33% will set a stricter budget.
Among respondents, 42% plan to shop equally online and in person, and 34% plan to shop mostly online with some in-person. Almost one-in-five (19%) consumers say they are likely to purchase directly via social media this holiday season, up from 11% who did so in 2025.
Basis added that 17% plan to use artificial intelligence tools in this year’s holiday shopping. The top use cases reported were finding deals (51%), generating gift ideas (44%), and comparing products (44%). Sixty percent of all respondents said they don’t plan to use AI for holiday shopping.
More than two-thirds (68%) of consumers plan to shop early to avoid delays, while 57% shop year-round to take advantage of deals. More than half (56%) plan to participate in Black Friday and Cyber Monday. However, 54% say it is not critical to shop those events because deals are available throughout the season.
[READ MORE: ICSC: In-store visits remain key for back-to-school shopping]
“The differentiator for brands during the 2026 holidays will be from understanding how consumers make decisions,” said Maggie Nemoy, VP of research and insights at Basis. “Research from Basis confirms that influence is built over a long, distributed season, and not at a single peak moment. People begin the discovery journey digitally — through search, social and now AI — before they ever interact directly with a brand. Winning the season requires being present early, capturing emotion and showing up consistently across channels, which can be aided by synchronizing media strategy and activation.”
The Basis 2026 Winter Holiday Shopping Trends study is based on a national survey of 2,006 U.S. consumers aged 16 and up, fielded in May 2026. The report was produced in partnership with audience research firm GWI.
