Import cargo volume falls year over year in January
Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below prior year levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.
That's according to the Global Port Tracker report, which is produced for the National Retail Federation by Hackett Associates. While the Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers, noted NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold.
“The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses," Gold added. "While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
Iran
Meanwhile, it is too soon to see an impact on U.S. container imports conflict in Iran that began just over a week ago, noted Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. But the immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region, he added.
“While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists," Hackett said. "That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
[READ MORE: Supreme Court rules against tariffs; Trump sets 15% global levy]
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in January 2026, although the ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet reported their data. That was up 3.8% from December 2025 but down 6.4% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for February 2026, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%; April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8%, and July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%.
Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The year-over-year increases projected for May and June 2026 are largely because of the drop-off in imports during those months after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025. Imports during 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
