Exclusive: Return rates sharply increased during 2025 holiday season
New data indicates the year-over-year increase in holiday spending was dwarfed by the rate of growth in holiday purchases that got returned.
Return rates rose 41% between November and December 2025 compared to the same time period in 2024. Data from agentic post-purchase platform Seel released in exclusive preview to Chain Store Age also reveals that average refund value per return climbed 42% year over year in 2025, while total refund dollars issued during the post-holiday period of Dec. 26, 2025 –Jan. 15, 2026 rose 336% from the same timeframe in 2025-2025.
For comparison, data from Adobe Analytics indicates that during the period covering Nov. 1 – Dec. 31, 2025, consumers spent $257.8 billion online at U.S. retail sites, an increase of 6.8% from the same period the prior year.
[READ MORE: Adobe: Holiday e-commerce beats expectations with record $257.8B]
Seel data also shows that a 33% spike in fashion returns during November and December 2025 compared to the rest of the year, while consumer electronics showed a 22% holiday return spike.
Other findings
- There was a 134% year over year spike in consumers obtaining post-purchase protection from November–December 2024 to 2025, which according to Seel analysis indicates a rise in consumer anxiety during the holiday shopping season.
- Seel data also showed a 20% increase in secondhand purchases from November-December 2024 to the same holiday shopping period in 2025, which the company said suggests growing interest in secondhand gifts during the holiday season.
Analysis from other sources released during the holiday season indicated mixed expectations for return volume. Business-to-business resale platform B-Stock estimated that close to one-in-five (17%) holiday purchases, including 19% of online holiday purchases, would be returned, and total returns for purchases made during the 2025 holiday season would amount to approximately $160 billion.
However, Adobe Analytics data was more bullish on holiday returns, finding that from Nov. 1 to Dec. 12, 2025, returns were down 2.5% compared to the comparable period in 2024.
"Post-purchase behavior now tells the truest story of consumer confidence," said Laura Huddle, chief revenue officer at Seel. "Even as spending holds steady, shoppers are demanding greater flexibility, security, and confidence as they shop. Retailers that treat the return experience as a loyalty moment, not a loss event, will gain a leg up on the shifting economic landscape and what we’re seeing as an even more competitive shopping environment in 2026."
Seel analyzed 19 million transactions across the past 24 months, examining return and refund trends across categories, fulfillment types and buyer profiles.
