Adobe: Holiday returns follow promising trend
So far, holiday shoppers are hanging on to their purchases more than last year.
During the 2025 holiday season to date (Nov. 1 to Dec. 12), Adobe Analytics data indicates returns were down 2.5% compared to the comparable period in 2024. In the seven days following Cyber Week, returns were down 0.1%. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 12, 39.1% of returns happened on a mobile device (compared to desktop), even as 52.4% of overall online spend was driven by mobile.
[READ MORE: Cyber Monday, Cyber Week online sales up roughly 7%]
However, Adobe advises that during the six-day period following Christmas Day (Dec. 26-31), returns are expected to rise by 25% to 35% compared to period between Nov. 1 to Dec. 12. According to Adobe, one out of every eight returns in the 2024 holiday season took place between Dec. 26 and Dec 31.
Returns are also set to remain elevated through the first two weeks of January 2026, with Adobe predicting return rates to be up 8% to 15% from the first six weeks of the holiday shopping season.
Other seasonal findings (Nov. 1 to Dec. 12)
- Consumers have already spent $187.3 billion so far this season, which represents 6.1% growth year over year. Adobe is reiterating its full season forecast (Nov-Dec) after a strong Cyber Week showing, with online spend set to cross the $250 billion mark ($253.4 billion online, up 5.3% year over year).
- Sales of refrigerators and freezers were up 400% compared to average spending levels in October 2025, along with home security products (up 380%), washers and dryers (up 380%), video games (up 360%), holiday decor (up 350%). puzzles & boxed games (up 330%), smartwatches (up 330%), and headphones & speakers (up 320%).
- Flexible buy now, pay layer payments been generated $13.9 billion in online spend, which represents 6% growth year over year.
Findings are based on Adobe Analytics data analyzing direct commerce transactions online, covering more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.
