Seasonal

Yet another holiday forecast brings more good cheer to retailers.   Consumers plan to spend an average of $636 on holiday-related expenses, up 3% from what they anticipated last year, according to The NPD Group’s 2016 Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey. They are also less concerned this year about the economy spoiling their holiday fun. When asked how the state of the economy will influence holiday purchases in 2016, the 12% who said it will have a “significant impact” is down from recent years (14% in 2015, 19% in 2014).

It’s that time of the year again — specifically, time for the holiday forecasts to start pouring in.

Let’s start with the good news. Early reports are calling for a solid season, with Deloitte predicting a 3.6% to 4% increase in total retail sales over last year.

As for the upcoming presidential election, it may be a temporary distraction in the early part of the holiday shopping season, but it’s not expected to have a negative impact on total sales. In fact, if past years are any indication, retailers may even benefit from a pickup in postelection consumer spending.

Move over Black Friday.   The biggest shopping day in terms of holiday sales is expected to be Friday, Dec. 23, while the biggest day in terms of store traffic is expected to be Saturday, Dec. 17, according to RetailNext Inc. (See lists at end of story.) It’s the first time in many years that Black Friday failed to top either of the lists.    

Between a partnership with Sonos and its expansion into the boutique hotel business, it’s been a busy couple of weeks for West Elm. And with it all, the home furnishings retailer continues to grow its core business.   West Elm will open its third store in Nevada, in Downtown Summerline, on Oct. 6. As part of the retailer’s Local program, eight Nevada-based makers and designers will sell their products with the store’s holiday assortment of modern furnishings and décor.  

In a bold stand, Mall of America will be closed on turkey day this year.     The mall, located in Bloomington, Minnesota, has been open for business on the holiday for the past four years. The 5.6 million-sq.-ft. mall has more than 520 stores and restaurants, and a number of attractions.      “In years past we’ve all rallied together to answer the call for 24/7 shopper access that the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend brings.”   

In the strongest forecast so far this year, holiday spending is expected to reach its highest point since the Great Recession, led by strong digital sales.   That’s according to PwC’s 2016 Holiday Outlook, which forecasts a 10% total rise in holiday spending over last year, and a 25% rise in digital sales.    “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season,” said Steven Barr, PwC’s U.S. retail & consumer leader. 

Two major retail organizations delivered some early holiday cheer to retailers.   The National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers issued their annual holiday forecasts on Tuesday, and both predicted holiday shoppers will spend more this year than they did last year.   

From increased budgets to a desire for free shipping to gifts for pets, PwC’s “2016 Holiday Outlook” report predicts the following trends will drive the upcoming holiday season:    1. Bigger holiday budgets: Shoppers will likely spend 10% more this holiday season; an average of $1,121 each. And consumers with annual household incomes less than $50,000 will likely increase their percentage spending levels even more than consumers overall.