Attitudes: Retailers

Consumer confidence increased in August to the second highest level since late 2000.    The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 122.9 in August, up from 120 in the prior month. Economists had expected the index to rise to 122.5 in August.    The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2. The Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0.  

Expect an Amazon-dominated holiday retail season among U.S. consumers this year, with the e-commerce giant being the top destination for shoppers.  

Back-to-school advertising appears to be losing some of its resonance with consumers.    Walmart, Target and Old Navy scored the highest awareness levels among consumers (with children under the age of 18) in a survey of BTS advertising from 30 retailers by YouGov BrandIndex. But many retailers scored less than last year.   

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since January in early August, reflecting optimism in the overall economy and in personal financial prospects.     The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 97.6 in the first half of August from 93.4 in July, which was an eight-month low.  Economists estimated the index would hit 94 in August.   

Target Corp. and Best Buy didn't just talk the talk when it came to killing a border adjustment tax on imports that was the centerpiece of House Republicans tax reform plan.    In the first six months of 2017, Best Buy spent $1.71 million in lobbying efforts, twice as much as it spent the entire year in 2016, the Star Tribune reported. Target Corp. spent $1.48 million lobbying from January through June 2017, which was slightly less than it spent all of last year.  

The retail industry is actually in better shape than some of today's headlines may lead folks to believe.    "Distressed [retail] names are growing, but still a small part of our rated universe," Moody's analyst Christina Boni told CNBC. "The broader industry remains fundamentally healthy."   Dollar stores, home-improvement chains, convenience stores and auto-parts retailers are among the leaders of the pack, according to the report.   

Volatility in the retail industry is now hitting senior retail executives in the pocketbook.   Seventy-three percent of retail companies paid little to no bonuses to senior executives in 2017 for 2016 performance, with 35% paying no bonus and 38% paying only small bonuses to their executives, according to new research by Korn Ferry. The company conducted an analysis of 40 North American retailers with annual sales between $1 billion and $50 billion  

There is an endless list of adjectives to describe the first six-months of the Trump administration. But one modifier is both accurate and acceptable — and that word is unpredictable.   For context, the first six months of the Obama and Bush administrations were fairly predictable. Both embarked on a legislative agenda that looked and felt a lot like their campaign platforms and while the legislative process for both was rocky, we knew what we were in for. Not so much this time around.