Some merchants moving up shipments ahead of possible tariffs and strike
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the potential for a January strike “can be seen in the continuing increases in U.S. imports from Asia, which have not fallen away as expected.” And worries over higher tariffs are a global concern, he added.
“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” Hackett said. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump. But it is not much different in Europe, with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.29 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in September, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 1.3% from August but up 12.8% year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, up 3.7% year-over-year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year-over-year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023.
The numbers have not yet been revised to reflect this week’s election results but do take the potential port strike into consideration. October was previously forecast at 2.12 million TEU, November at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, and the total for 2024 was previously forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
January 2025 is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5% year-over-year; February at 1.77 million TEU, down 9.3% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories, and March at 2.01 million TEU, up 4.4%.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.