NRF: Holiday sales, led by e-commerce, may grow to $990 billion in 2024
The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting modest holiday sales growth, with top estimates reaching about $990 billion in spending.
NRF is forecasting that holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023, which equates to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December, compared with $955.6 billion during the same timeframe last year.
NRF expects the primary contributor of overall retail sales growth will be from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022.
“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
When it comes to adding to the workforce ahead of the holidays, NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, some of which may have been pulled into October to support retailers’ holiday buying events this month. This compares with 509,000 seasonal hires last year. Major retailers like Kroger, Target and Amazon have already announced holiday hiring plans.
NRF also noted that this year’s holiday season will be shorter, with the gap between Thanksgiving and Christmas being six days fewer than last year, totaling 26 days. Additional contributing factors to sales this year could include the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and potentially the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
[READ MORE: Nearly half of consumers say inflation, grocery prices will impact voting decisions]
“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”
