Salesforce: U.S. holiday sales to reach $277 billion
A shorter season, Chinese shopping apps and a value-seeking shopper will make for softer growth this holiday season.
That's according to the 2024 holiday shopping forecast from Salesforce, which predicted that U.S. holiday sales (from Nov. 1 – Dec. 31, 2024) will grow 2% year-over-year to $277 billion. Global year-over-over holidays sales are also expected to grow 2%, totaling $1.19 trillion.
With 47% of surveyed shoppers saying they are buying the same amount as last year and 40% buying less, Salesforce expects 2024 holiday sales growth to be softer than 2023, when global sales increased 3% year-over-year and reached $1.17 trillion, with U.S. online sales rising 1% year-over-year to $272 billion.
Challenges await
Salesforce predicts the upcoming holiday shopping season could be especially challenging for retailers as they compete for shoppers with less purchasing power than in past years, the fewest number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas since 2019 (26 shopping days from Nov. 29 – Dec. 24) and 43% of consumers carrying more debt than they were in 2023.
However, new Salesforce data from the Salesforce Shopping Index indicates that two-thirds of surveyed global consumers report that prices will dictate where they choose to shop in 2024, with less than one-third prioritizing the quality of the goods.
Chinese shopping apps, especially TikTok, will have impact
Salesforce forecasts that one-in-five (21%) purchases this holiday season will be made on Chinese shopping apps such as Temu, Shein, AliExpress and TikTok. More than one-third (35%) of surveyed consumers report that they’re buying more on the apps in the past three months compared to the same time period in 2023.
Since its last consumer survey in April 2024, Salesforce says there has been a 24% increase in the number of shoppers who report making a purchase through TikTok. (In a previous set of predictions for consumer behavior during the 2024 holiday shopping season, Salesforce said Chinese shopping apps are poised to take market share from other retailers this holiday season.)
[READ MORE: Salesforce: Five trends will drive 2024 holiday shopping behavior]
Since its last consumer survey in April 2024, Salesforce says there has been a 24% increase in the number of shoppers who report making a purchase through TikTok.
The company advises retailers to utilize strategic discounts, as well as artificial intelligence to augment employees, increase operational efficiency, build deeper customer relationships through activities such as targeted recommendations and promotions and drive higher margins.
"This season will be competitive, intense, and no doubt focused on pricing and discounting strategies," said Caila Schwartz, director of strategy and consumer insights at Salesforce. "It’s never been more important to leverage technology like AI and rely on your customer data for guidance and insight into marketing campaigns, especially the holiday promotional calendar, that keep your loyal customers buying more and buying from you."
Other findings
- Two-thirds of surveyed shoppers say they’re holding out on making big purchases until Cyber Week, largely because they believe this to be the best week of the season for deals and promotions.
- Salesforce is predicting global discount rates will rise briefly in October and peak at an average discount of 28% during Cyber Week. In the U.S., the average discount rate is expected to reach up to 30%.
- Salesforce expects 18% of global orders during the 2024 holiday season to be influenced by a combination of predictive and generative AI. This amounts to $201 billion in global online sales.
- Over half (53%) of shoppers surveyed by Salesforce report interest in using generative AI for inspiring the perfect present. Other reported consumer benefits of the technology include price comparisons and holiday budgeting.
- Quick resolution times and rapid responses are the top two features that matter most to surveyed shoppers when interacting with customer service.
- Salesforce expects buy online pick up in store (BOPIS) to drive 33% of global online orders the week before Christmas and Boxing Week (Dec. 26-31) due to the shortened shopping season.
Salesforce analyzes aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 64 countries, with a focus on 12 key markets: the U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia/New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand) and the Nordics. Prediction data is from proprietary Salesforce research.
