Salesforce: Global online holiday sales to hit record $1.25T
Digital holiday sales are expected to soar in 2025, with U.S. growth contributing.
New data from Salesforce indicates November and December digital sales are expected to reach an unprecedented $1.25 trillion around the globe in 2025, marking a 4% year-over-year increase from the current record-holding $1.2 trillion total reported in 2024..
In the U.S., digital sales are forecasted to grow 2% for a total of $288 billion. Salesforce estimates that a significant portion of the growth this upcoming holiday season will be attributed to the rise in AI and agent-referred traffic, which is projected to drive 21% of all holiday orders globally, accounting for $263 billion in sales.
[READ MORE: How agentic AI is finding its place in retail]
However, Salesforce predicts a 2% decline in holiday digital orders placed with a promotional code, which it says likely in response to retailers offering fewer holiday promotions due to rising supply chain costs.
AI impact
According to Salesforce analysis, online traffic from AI assistants has grown rapidly in 2025, with volumes growing 119% annually in the first half of the year. Conversion rates from these channels were over 700% higher than social media traffic in the first half of 2025 and 200% higher than other traffic sources like traditional search and direct.
Seventeen percent of respondents have used an AI assistant or LLM in the last year for product searches, and 86% of these users now trusting them, up from 46% in May 2025.
Salesforce data also indicates that 48% of shoppers who already use AI for shopping are open to having an AI agent make a purchase for them. Salesforce predicts the use of AI and agents for customer service by retailers will grow 39% year-over-year over the holiday season, leading to an overall 2.5% decrease in customer interactions.
Trends driving holiday retail
According to Salesforce, $64 billion of holiday sales will come from the resale market, driven by consumer sentiment around potential tariff volatility. Close to half (46%) of consumers surveyed by Salesforce plan to give a previously-owned item as a gift, with saving money as being the top reported reason.
Saving money is also the reason why 77% of respondents said that they will wait until Cyber Week to make their major purchases.
Gen Z brick-and-mortar preferences
Three in four Gen Z holiday shoppers tracked by Salesforce expect to shop in-store, especially on key days like Black Friday. For every $1 a Gen Z shopper spends online, Salesforce projects them to spend $3 in a brick-and-mortar store.
Salesforce predictions are based on 1.5 billion global shoppers’ data using Salesforce Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud, and Agentforce solutions.
