Numerator: Consumer goods prices inched up in October
Inflation on everyday items increased during the fall months after cooling over the summer.
Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) for October revealed that everyday household items increased 0.6% in price during the month, following a 0.7% increase in September. The increases came after decreases in August and July.
In October, prices for everyday goods were up 2.7% versus a year ago, an acceleration of the year-over-year inflation rate compared to the 2.1% in September. Compared to January 2018, prices for everyday household goods were up 34.8% in October.
In Numerator's October 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker, which surveyed over 2,000 U.S. consumers, 42.2% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, surpassing the previous record high 40.5% from the August 2026 survey.
[READ MORE: Study: Consumers' affordability confidence dropped 15 points from January to August]
“After two months of declining prices this summer, inflation for everyday goods has accelerated again, and consumers are increasingly concerned about what comes next,” said Paul Stanley, senior economist at Numerator. “The latest data show that inflation remains a persistent pressure on household budgets, particularly for younger consumers who continue to experience higher price increases than the national average.”
Additional insights from the latest CGPI include the following:
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 36.7% and 41.3%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 34.8% national average.
- Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 55.4% since January 2018 as of October.
- Regionally, cumulative inflation remained relatively similar across the South, West and Midwest in October, while the Northeast continued to see the smallest price increase since January 2018 at 33.7%. Since the summer, Numerator said there has been an "observed divergence" in regional inflation as the Midwest and West regions have consistently experienced higher annual inflation rates relative to the Northeast and South.
Methodology
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE Price Index. Numerator's Consumer Goods Price Index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker provides a monthly view of consumer confidence, spending & saving considerations, and future financial outlook. The tracker is powered by a continuous survey to our consumer panel, capturing over 2,000 responses each month since its launch in January 2024.
