Study: Consumers' affordability confidence dropped 15 points from January to August
Consumer confidence sank over the first eight months of 2026, even as hourly earnings increased.
That’s according to the latest Acosta Group Affordability Tracker, which combines NIQ Discover basket pricing with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The share of consumers expressing comfort in affording groceries and household essentials fell from 68% in January to 53% in August, a 15-percentage-point decline.
Alongside the decline in shopper comfort, the share who felt uncomfortable affording groceries and household essentials rose from 17% in January to 26% in August.
For the four weeks ending Sept. 5, 2026, Acosta Group's Typical Stock-Up Trip, an 84-item basket of commonly purchased grocery and household essentials, cost $366.42, up 3.5% from the comparable period a year earlier. The increase came as median hourly earnings rose approximately 4.6% year over year in the second quarter, according to the report, reducing the work time needed to purchase the basket from 11.84 hours to 11.72 hours.
The 84-item basket costs approximately 31% more than in the comparable four-week period of 2020, which Acosta Group says helps explain why incremental purchasing-power gains "may be difficult for shoppers to feel."
"The affordability recovery has reached a point where small gains in purchasing power are offering little breathing room for households," said Colin Stewart, executive VP of business intelligence at Acosta Group. "Shoppers are weighing a grocery purchase against everything else their income needs to cover, and the habits they developed during the inflation surge remain practical ways to manage that pressure. For brands and retailers, the opportunity is to make value easier to recognize and give shoppers greater confidence in what they choose."
[READ MORE: Consumer sentiment weakens in September as economic fears worsen]
Over the past six months, Acosta Group found that 43% of shoppers said higher prices caused them to cut back on non-essentials, while 43% spent more time looking for deals. Another 38% bought more private label brands, while 35% shopped at stores with lower prices.
In August, nearly half (47%) of shoppers said they felt confident they could afford groceries and household needs over the next 12 months, while 34% were worried.
“The findings suggest retailers should make pricing, promotions and assortment easier to navigate, while brands should clearly communicate the quality and benefits that justify a purchase,” noted Acosta Group. “Value extends beyond the lowest price to include convenience, package size and confidence that a product will meet the household's needs.”
Methodology
Acosta Group’s Affordability Tracker combines NIQ Discover basket pricing with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics earnings data to measure the work hours required to purchase a Typical Stock-Up Trip. The latest update uses pricing through Sept. 5, 2026, and second-quarter earnings data, alongside Acosta Group Shopper Community research. It provides a national purchasing-power measure rather than an assessment of every household's finances.
