Numerator: Consumer goods prices up 2.1% annually in September
Inflation ticked up in September after cooling slightly over the summer.
According to Numerator’s latest Consumer Goods Price Index, prices for everyday household purchases increased 0.7% in September, following consecutive decreases in August and July of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Prices for everyday goods were up 2.1% in September compared to a year ago, and were essentially flat relative to the year-over-year rate in August.
Overall, prices for everyday household goods are up 34.0% since January 2018, and are up 2.1% over the past 12 months.
In Numerator's September 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of over 2,000 U.S. consumers, roughly four-in-10 (39.6%) identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year. This figure is roughly on par with the record high 40.5% from the August 2026 survey.
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“Wage growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than five years, reaching 3.0% in September and is slightly below broader inflation for a fifth consecutive month,” said Paul Stanley, senior economist at Numerator. “Everyday consumer goods offer a brighter spot with Numerator data showing prices rising 2.1% over the 12 months through September, below wage growth. That gives consumers some relief at the store, even if it isn’t reflected across the broader household budget.”
Additional highlights from the September Consumer Goods Price Index include the following:
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 36.0% and 40.8%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018.
- Regionally, the gap remained narrow in September between the South, West and Midwest. However, the Northeast continues to see the smallest cumulative price increase of the four regions at 32.7% compared to January 2018, and the slowest month-over-month gain at 0.5%
- Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 53.3% since January 2018.
Methodology
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE Price Index. Numerator's Consumer Goods Price Index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker provides a monthly view of consumer confidence, spending & saving considerations, and future financial outlook. The tracker is powered by a continuous survey to our consumer panel, capturing over 2,000 responses each month since its launch in January 2024.
