Numerator: Consumer goods prices continued climbing in May
May 2026 marked a new high water mark for inflation in recent years.
Prices for everyday household purchases increased 0.47% in May, following a 0.43% increase in April and staying essentially flat in March, according to new data from Numerator. In May, prices for everyday goods increased 2.9% versus a year ago, marking the highest rate of inflation in over two years.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data covers approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
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Not all consumers are feeling the pinch of higher prices equally. Numerator’s latest data reveals that low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 34.9% and 38.2%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 32.9% national average.
High-income households have insulated themselves as inflation has accelerated, experiencing just 0.4% inflation since February 2026 vs. 1.0% and 1.1% for low- and middle-income households, respectively. Regionally, consumers in the South census region have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018.
“May marks a notable convergence of trends: prices for everyday goods saw their largest year-over-year increase in more than two years, while consumer concern about rising prices reached a record high since Numerator began tracking consumer sentiment in January 2024,” said Paul Stanley, senior economist at Numerator. “While prices can be volatile month over month, consecutive months of acceleration suggest this may not be temporary. Cost pressures are building across everyday goods and placing the greatest strain on low- and middle-income households, a disparity that is unlikely to ease while gas and energy prices remain elevated.”
Methodology
The Numerator CGPI is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. The data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side.
