NRF: Holiday sales ‘unexpectedly high' with 4% increase over 2023
The holiday season was a bigger success than many expected as consumers “came out to spend” amid lessening inflation and discounting.
Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that core retail sales during the 2024 holiday season (November and December) grew an unexpectedly high 4% over 2023 to a record $994.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. The 2024 holiday sales results top the previous record of $955.6 billion spent during the 2023 holiday season.
The total was ahead of NRF’s forecast, which expected holiday spending to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. The results also top the previous record of $955.6 billion spent during the 2023 holiday season.
Sales for the full year grew 3.6% over 2023 to a record $5.28 trillion.
“Consumers came out to spend this holiday season and clearly underscored the solid growth in the U.S. economy,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The spending pace was back to pre-pandemic growth and indicates a good start for the year ahead.”
The 2024 figures were driven in part by lower inflation compared with 2023, particularly for goods.
“Even though consumers are still relatively healthy and there was a notable increase in spending, they remain budget conscious,” said Kleinhenz.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales is based on Census Bureau data but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
The holiday total, which is not adjusted for inflation, includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 8.6% at $296.7 billion. NRF had forecast that the category would grow between 8% and 9% to between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion.
The $5.28 trillion in core retail sales for the full year reached the top end of NRF’s forecast that 2024 annual sales would also grow between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. Sales during 2023 totaled $5.1 trillion, which was the previous full-year spending record.
Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data, NRF estimates that retailers hired 438,000 seasonal workers during November and December, in line with the 400,000 to 500,000 NRF had predicted.
December Sales
For December alone, core retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from November and up 4.2% unadjusted year-over-year. By comparison, sales were up 0.3% month-over-month in November and up 3.9% year-over-year. The late timing of Thanksgiving in 2024 shifted sales on Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday from November into December, affecting results for both months accordingly, according to NRF.
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in December were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 3.9% unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year in November.
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November-December holiday sales saw year-over-year gains in seven of nine retail categories, led by online sales, furniture stores and electronics and appliances stores.
Specifics from key sectors for the two months combined, all on an unadjusted year-over-year basis, include:
- Online and other non-store sales were up 8.6%.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 5.6%.
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.7%.
- Health and personal care stores were up 3%.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.8%.
- General merchandise stores were up 2.4%.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 2.1%.
- Building materials and garden supply stores were unchanged.
- Sporting goods stores were unchanged.
