NRF: 2024 retail returns to total $890 billion
Returns continue to pose a significant — and costly — problem for the retail industry.
Total returns are projected to reach $890 billion in 2024, according to a new report by the National Retail Federation and Happy Returns, a UPS company. Retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales in 2024 will be returned.
Return policies and expectations also impact the consumer. Seventy-six percent of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again.
Even though returns occur throughout the year, they are more prevalent during the holiday season. A separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate. To address the higher volume ,retailers are seeking additional support from third-party logistics providers (40%) and hiring additional seasonal staff to specifically handle returns (34%).
Other findings from the NRF/Happy Returns study are below.
- Shoppers value flexibility during the returns process and acknowledge the impact it can have at the initial point of purchase. Eighty-four percent of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
- More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months.
- A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business.
- In terms of abuse, bracketing — purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some — has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
- Improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
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“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration — they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” said David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
This fall, NRF partnered with Happy Returns to conduct two complementary surveys, aiming to understand the dynamics of online returns from both consumers and e-commerce professionals. The first survey gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, exploring their shopping preferences, return experiences and expectations for the upcoming 2024 winter holiday season.
The second survey engaged 249 ecommerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers (with more than $500 million in revenue), across verticals, to gather insights into their return rates and the operational challenges they face with returns processing. By comparing perspectives from both sides, the goal was to uncover valuable insights into the online return landscape.
View the 2024 Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry report here.
