Mastercard: Black Friday sales to rise 15%; in-store sales to see big increase

With many retailers closed again this year on Thanksgiving, shoppers are gearing up for a Black Friday shopping blitz — particularly in stores.

That’s according to Mastercard Spending Pulse, which expects that U.S. retail sales (excluding automotive) will grow 15% on Black Friday (Nov.25) compared to last year. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all payment types and is not adjusted for inflation.

In-store holiday sales are anticipated to be up 18% year-over-year, the report noted, building on last year’s in-store momentum. The post-pandemic return of doorbusters, window displays and brick-and-mortar collaborations are continuing to drive shoppers back into stores, Mastercard noted.

Other key trends cited by Mastercard are below.

• Department store deals: Department stores are making a comeback with deals and discounts to entice consumers. Department store Black Friday sales are expected to increase nearly 25% year-over-year.
• Dining out for the holidays: Restaurants are expected to experience 35% year-over-year growth on Black Friday as consumers prioritize experiences and dining out with friends and family.
• Tis the season for travel: Travel companies are also getting in on the promotional holiday. Separate from total retail sales, airlines (up 39% year over year) and lodging (up 32% year over year) are expected to experience double-digit growth on Black Friday as consumers plan their next getaway.

“Expect Black Friday shopping to be in full force across channels this year,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “While retailers have already been heavily discounting this season, consumers and retailers are likely holding out for some special offers to land on the biggest promotional day of the year.”

October sales
As anticipated, early holiday promotions drove sales in October. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, October U.S. retail sales (excluding automotive) increased 9.5% year over year and 23.6% compared to October 2019. Sales rose in all categories (see table below) except furniture & furnishings, luxury and jewelry.

“In October we saw the strength in the labor market continue to support consumer purchasing power,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. chief economist, Mastercard Economics Institute. “Coupled with heavy online promotions, consumers got a head start on their holiday shopping, fueling another strong month of retail sales.”