Predictive Analytics

WASHINGTON — AAA forecasts 91.9 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the 2011-2012 year-end holiday travel season, a 1.4% increase over the 90.7 million people who traveled one year ago, the travel organization announced earlier this week. This year’s expected year-end holiday travel volume is the second-highest in the past decade and represents 30% of the total U.S. population.

WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation is putting its faith in the holidays by upgrading its spending forecast for the season.

After initially anticipating sales growth of 2.8%, the NRF said it now expects holiday sales to rise 3.8% to $469.1 billion. The projection may be lower than the 5.2% increase the retail industry saw last year, but the group said a number of factors, such as strong year-over-year sales and the fact that not all consumers have completed their holiday shopping lists, could provide the industry with a great gift after all.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Retail Federation said Thursday that it has upwardly revised its holiday forecast, now expecting holiday sales to rise 3.8% this year to a record $469.1 billion. 

NRF’s initial forecast, announced on October 6, called for anticipated sales growth of 2.8%. While a 3.8% sales increase is considerably above the 10-year average sales increase of 2.6%, it is still lower than the 5.2% increase the retail industry saw last year, said NRF.

Fort Worth, Texas -- Pier 1 Imports Inc.'s third-quarter profit climbed 10% to $23 million from $21 million a year earlier, better than analysts expected. 

Revenue increased 8% to $382.7 million from $353.8 million, boosted by a higher average ticket and more traffic.  Same-store sales were up 7%. 

The retailer also said Thursday that its sales so far in December are strong and that it expected the momentum to continue until Christmas. 

CHICAGO — A new report by ShopperTrak found that sales continue to rise despite flat year-over-year figures.

Sales for the week ended Dec. 10 rose 10.6% above the prior week, while year-over-year sales saw a decline of 1.9%. The drop, which followed a 0.2% year-over-year increase during the week ended Dec. 3, is not an indication that holiday sales will be dismal this year; the firm suggested that it may have been caused by the shifting dates of Hanukkah — moving from Dec. 1 in 2010 to Dec. 20 this year.

SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. — Fourth quarter and fiscal year 2011 both proved positive for Stater Bros., the regional supermarket chain announced Tuesday.

For the fourth quarter ended Sept. 25, the retailer saw a 5% increase in sales to $941.9 million, compared with the year-ago period. For the 52-week fiscal year, sales rose 2.4% to $3.7 billion, the company said. Same-store sales for the fourth quarter and fiscal year experienced a 5% and 2.5% jump in same-store sales, respectively.

New York City -- The IBM Benchmark snapshot, released Wednesday, of online retail data showed growing strength in the category.

According to the data, online sales for the week of Dec. 5 were up 7.3% year over year. On Monday, Dec. 12, online sales were up 11.8% over the same day in 2010.

Chicago -- A report released Tuesday by ShopperTrak revealed that December holiday sales remain flat year-over-year but are showing signs of growth in the days and weeks ahead. Double-digit increases in week-over-week sales show shoppers are spending this holiday season.

According to ShopperTrak, the week ending Dec. 10 saw a 10.6% increase in retail sales from the previous week, good tidings as retailers prepare for historically two of the highest GAFO sales weeks of the year for retailers.

Spokane, Wash. -- Ecova, a total energy and sustainability management company, has been selected by Rite Aid to provide utility expense and energy management services. Ecova will assist Rite Aid in monitoring, understanding and reducing energy use at approximately 4,700 Rite Aid pharmacies nationwide.

San Francisco -- Whole Foods Market partnering with EnergySmart Jobs and PECI on high-efficiency refrigeration retrofits. EnergySmart Jobs works with supermarkets and other commercial retail businesses throughout California to lower their operating costs by reducing the amount of energy they use.