NRF: Holiday forecast upgraded to 3.8% rise

WASHINGTON, D.C. --The National Retail Federation said Thursday that it has upwardly revised its holiday forecast, now expecting holiday sales to rise 3.8% this year to a record $469.1 billion.

NRF’s initial forecast, announced on October 6, called for anticipated sales growth of 2.8%. While a 3.8% sales increase is considerably above the 10-year average sales increase of 2.6%, it is still lower than the 5.2% increase the retail industry saw last year, said NRF.

“After strong sales reports in October and November, along with a successful Black Friday weekend, retailers are cautiously optimistic that this season will turn out better than initially expected, bringing added stability to our recovering economy at a time when America needs it most,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “However, a number of factors, including the debt crisis in Europe and continued political wrangling in Washington, could impact consumer spending this holiday season and into 2012.”