How big will Prime Big Deals Day be?

A new forecast examines the likely performance of the upcoming Amazon Prime sales extravaganza.

Scheduled for Oct. 10-11, 2023, Amazon Prime Big Deal Days is essentially a fall version of its annual Prime Day 48-hour sales extravaganza (mostly held in July). The e-tailer debuted the event in  October 2022 under the name Prime Early Access Sale. According to a forecast by Numerator,  Big Deal Days will likely outperform Amazon's fall 2022 sales event, but won't top Prime Day.

Numerator data indicates that the October 2022 Prime Early Access Sale saw a six-percentage-point drop in household participation compared to its July 2022 Prime Day event (28% of US households vs. 34%), with overall sales volume and spending down as well.

Early Access shoppers placed fewer, smaller orders and purchased lower-priced items than shoppers of Amazon’s summer sale, according to Numerator. These numbers spiked again with Prime Day 2023, with 37% of U.S. households shopping the event, which Numerator says makes it unlikely that Prime Big Deal Days can top a summer Prime Day.

Prime Day Participation
Source: Numerator Insights

Here are four other Amazon Prime Big Deal Day predictions from the Numerator forecast: 

•Prime Big Deal Days will bring a significant boost to overall e-commerce sales. Numerator still expects Prime Big Deal Days to bring a massive spike to online shopping in October. Daily online sales doubled during the 2022 Prime Early Access Sale, placing both days of the event among the top 10 online shopping days of the past two years, with day one ranking one place behind Cyber Monday 2022.

Top Online Shopping Days: 2022 & 2023
Source: Numerator TruView

•Competing retailer sales have the opportunity to pull share and shoppers from Amazon. Major retailers have announced rival sales to take place around Amazon’s fall event, including Target Circle Week and Walmart Deals - Holiday Kickoff. In 2022, the Early Access Sale resulted in a larger sales boost for Amazon than Walmart or Target, but Numerator data indicates that the Walmart and Target events generated higher customer satisfaction with the deals offered.

Retail Event Deal Satisfaction
How satisfied were you with the deals offered during [SALE]?
Source: Numerator Surveys

 •Toys (including Barbie) will likely see a boost on Prime Big Deal Days, while Amazon electronics may have hit their saturation point. In 2022, toys were the only category with increased shopper penetration during the Early Access Sale compared to Prime Day 2022, and five of the top 10 brands in the Early Access Sale were toys and games. Barbie came in as the #10 brand during the 2022 Early Access Sale, and Numerator says Barbie could rank higher in 2023 if the summer Barbie movie hype sustains through October.

However, Numerator data shows that interest in electronics during Amazon sales has decreased over the past five years. While 42% of Prime Day 2019 shoppers purchased electronics, only 29% did so on Prime Day 2023. According to Numerator analysis, this decline is driven by fewer shoppers purchasing streaming media players and smart home devices, specifically Amazon’s Fire TV Stick and Echo smart speakers.
 

•Manufacturers will likely use Prime Big Deal Days to clear inventory ahead of the holiday shopping season.  The 2022 Early Access Sale saw steep promotions on 2nd Generation Apple Airpods and 3rd Generation Echo Dots, with both among the top 10 items sold overall despite having newer models on the market. This year, Numerator predicts that manufacturers may again use the fall Prime event to offload old inventory before pushing new products on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.