Forrester: Total U.S. holiday sales to hit $1 trillion, with online up 10.1%
Forrester is predicting overall steady but not spectacular growth for sales in the United States this holiday season.
According to the new Forrester "U.S. Online Holiday Retail Forecast 2024," total holiday retail sales in the U.S. will grow 3.7% year-over-year and reach $1 trillion in 2024, up from $964 billion during the 2023 holiday season. This predicted annual growth is lower than the previous four years but higher than the average of pre-pandemic years.
This total figure includes an anticipated 10.1% increase in U.S. online holiday retail sales, reaching $257 billion as compared to $233 billion a year earlier. Online retail sales for the holiday period are forecast to grow faster than in the previous two years but slower than the average of pre-pandemic years, when they mostly grew by double digits.
Online sales are expected to make up 26% of total U.S. holiday retail sales, up roughly 8% from 24% in 2023. Forrester also predicts that U.S. in-store sales will grow at 1.7% year-over-year during the holiday period, reaching $744 billion from $731 billion. The in-store retail sales growth for the holiday period is anticipated to continue to slow from the previous three years.
October grows in importance for holiday sales
In recent years, Forrester has recorded a growing share of fourth-quarter retail and e-commerce sales in the month of October as more consumers start shopping earlier, ahead of the traditional holiday season.
For example, Amazon held a Prime sales event in October 2024 for the third consecutive year, while major retailers like Best Buy, Target, and Walmart followed with their own similarly timed promotions.
[READ MORE: Amazon has biggest October sale ever; Holiday Beauty Haul up next]
Forrester estimates October will represent 31.1% of overall holiday sales and 29.8% of online sales, similar to shares of 31% and 29.6% respectively recorded in 2023.
Forrester’s overall holiday sales predictions are in line with those of the NRF, which recently reiterated its forecast that sales during the November-December holiday season would increase between 2.5% and 3.5% from 2023 to a total of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
As part of the forecast modeling, Forrester develops comprehensive historical and base-year market size estimates based on a variety of sources, including public financial documents, executive interviews, Forrester’s proprietary primary research and surveys, and analysis of global companies’ distribution and growth.
