Forrester: Amazon and Walmart to capture one-fourth of U.S. retail sales by 2029
Two retail giants are poised to dominate the U.S. retail landscape in the years to come.
Amazon and Walmart have significantly increased their share of total and online retail sales in the U.S. during the past six years, according to Forrester’s “U.S. Online Retail Forecast, 2024-2029.” If current trends continue, the two companies will account for one-fourth of total retail sales and two-thirds of online retail sales in the U.S. by 2029, with their combined retail sales reaching $1.5 trillion and online retail sales hitting $1.1 trillion, per the report.
Forrester also forecasts that, by 2029, U.S. total retail sales will reach $6.0 trillion, with online retail sales hitting $1.8 trillion.
Other highlights from the Forrester report are below.
•U.S. online retail penetration will reach 29% by 2029, up from 23% in 2024.
•Amazon alone generated more e-commerce sales than the combined e-commerce sales of all omnichannel retailers in the U.S. in 2023.
•U.S. online retail sales will grow from $1.2 trillion in 2024 to $1.8 trillion in 2029, with a five-year CAGR of 8.4%.
•By 2029, U.S. click-and-collect sale, which include both “buy online, pick up in-store” and curbside pickup will reach $196 billion and capture 29% of U.S. omnichannel retailers’ e-commerce sales.
•Non-durable goods categories (includes clothing, food, personal care items, pet food and supplies) have significant online growth potential as their aggregate online retail penetration is only half that of durable goods categories. The categories likely to see double-digit or high-single-digit e-commerce growth over the next five years. Online grocery will grow fastest.
•Online retail penetration for clothing, flowers, footwear, pets and toys will exceed 50% by 2029.
•Half of the durable goods categories have online retail penetration above 40% and are likely to see mid- to high-single-digit e-commerce growth over the next five years. The tools and home improvement and furniture categories will see double-digit growth due to their currently low online penetration.
