Deloitte: Back-to-school spending to be flat amid growing economic uncertainty
Back-to-school spending — not adjusted for inflation — will likely remain flat this as consumers’ concern about the economy heightens.
Parents plan to spend $557 per student in grades K-12, down $13 year over year, for a total of $30.4 billion, according to the “2026 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey.” When adjusted for inflation, however, families plan to spend 6% less year-over-year.
The survey found that economic concerns are mounting, with 57% of respondents saying they expect the economy to worsen in the next six months, which is the highest level reported in the survey since 2020. And 24% of respondents are concerned about making upcoming payments.
Deloitte found that spending intent has shifted from tech to clothing: Those surveyed plan to spend 22% more on clothing and accessories, an average of $323 per child. Clothing is also the top category people would cut if budgets get too tight.
Spending on technology is expected to decline 16% to an average of $417 per child as parents defer personal device upgrades for their children.
Stores
In other findings, most back-to-school purchases are expected to take place in-store rather than online, but online shoppers plan to spend more — an average of $614 compared to $521 for mostly in-store shoppers. Mass merchant retailers continue to be the top destination for back-to-school purchases, with 80% of parents planning to shop there.
Online retailers, warehouse membership clubs and department stores are other top destinations. Parents plan to shop at four retail formats on average, one less than last year. According to survey respondents, the main reason for spending the most at a retailer remains value for the money.
Value
Back-to-school shoppers remain strategic about spending as economic uncertainty remains top of mind, according to the survey. Parents of K-12 students plan to engage in value-seeking behaviors and push their spending closer to the start of school. Inflation appears to be impacting spending power, and parents are finding ways to navigate it. A majority (71%) say they will switch brands if the preferred brand is too expensive. Sixty percent plan to shop at more affordable retailers.
In addition, 51% expect to shop for private labels instead of name brands. One-quarter (25%) plan to use cashback websites
Other key findings from the Deloitte survey are below.
•Thirty-one percent of K-12 parents qualify as hyper value-seekers, adopting four or more cost-saving behaviors. These consumers plan to spend 14% more than other shoppers, suggesting that shopping is less about buying the cheapest item and more about buying intentionally.
•Families are pushing back-to-school purchases closer to the start of school, with planned spending expected to peak in late July and early August, a return to pre-pandemic trends. (Forty-eight perecent 48% of planned spending is expected to occur by the end of July, down from 61% in 2025.)
•Half of parents surveyed worry that their child relies on AI too much in and outside the classroom, while only 33% say their school has AI guidelines. Signaling a potential opportunity for ed-tech and retailers, 13% of parents plan to pay for AI tutoring or camps.
•To make room in their budgets for back-to-school items, 50% of respondents plan to cut back on other expenses, such as dining out and entertainment.
•Children's preferences shape spending decisions, although slightly less often than last year: 59% of parents surveyed say their children often entice them to spend more, compared to 62% who said the same in 2025.
In addition, 45% say their child has a specific must-have item for back-to-school, and 57% say their child influences them to splurge on that item.
"While many parents are willing to do all they can to help set their children up for success, financial concerns are leading them to sharpen their budgets,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products sector leader, Deloitte. “Cautious spending behavior exists across income groups, but value-seekers demonstrate that it's not always about the cost — some consumers are willing to spend if they find value in the purchase. At the same time, there's often a sense of nostalgia about back-to-school that can impact how and when parents spend. Retailers who lean into these dynamics may be more likely to see success throughout the season."
Deloitte's "Back-to-School" survey was conducted online using an independent research panel between May 22 and May 29, 2026, and surveyed 1,207 parents with at least one child attending school in grades K-12 this fall.
