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The busiest days for back-to-school shopping will be…

Back-to-school shopping
Saturdays in August are expected to see the largest single-day crowds of the season.

An unusually late Labor Day this year is expected to have little impact on back-to-school shopping. 

Peak back-to-school traffic is expected in August nationwide, according to data from Sensormatic Solutions’ ShopperTrak Analytics. Despite this year’s late Labor Day (Sept. 7), the overall timing and in-store visit counts for back-to-school shopping are expected to remain relatively consistent, with the busiest shopping days predicted to fall between Aug. 2 and 28 across all regions. (See end of article for busiest days by region.)

Overall, in-store shopper traffic trends are expected to be in line with year-to-date performance, which has averaged -2.3%.

“We expect that each region’s busiest day will occur roughly two weeks before the local school year begins, a timing driven by the school calendar that varies by market,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, which is part of Johnson Controls. “Retailers should consider forecasting traffic volume relative to each market's start date, rather than copying another region's strategy. This school calendar-driven, region-specific approach may be the key to success this back-to-school season.”

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Based on Sensormatic’s in-store shopper activity data, its analytics team predicts the busiest in-store shopping weeks are likely to be: 

•South: Aug. 2-8;

•West: Aug. 2-8; 

•Midwest: Aug. 9-15; and 

•Northeast: Aug. 16-29. 

Saturdays in August are expected to see the largest single-day crowds of the season, with peak traffic anticipated between 2 and 3 p.m. As a result, the highest-volume days are likely to round out each 2026 rush: 

•South: Saturday, Aug. 8; 

•West: Saturday, Aug. 8; 

•Midwest: Saturday, Aug. 15; 

•Northeast: Saturday, Aug. 29. 

In 2025, two-thirds (67%) of shoppers had already reported purchasing back-to-school items by July, according to the National Retail Federation. However, August 2025 ultimately delivered the strongest in-store traffic month for retailers (to date). 

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