The recent slowing of consumer store traffic is creating challenges for the food-away-from-home indsdustry — but for some industry segments more than others.
The total restaurant category — including full-service and limited-service restaurants — is projected to grow 0.5% in 2024 on top of 0.8% last year, according to the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association’s latest 2024 and 2025 Food Away-From-Home Industry and Segment Projections.
Quick-service restaurants, which have performed significantly better in recent years than other segments overall, are projected to grow 0.7%. The fast casual segment shows bullish growth of 1.3% percent, a positive adjustment compared to the February projection of 0.9%.
IFMA also revised its projection for casual dining to flat growth, compared to 0.5% in February, with the change reflecting the consumer trade down to lower cost occasions, the group explained. Midscale restaurants are the only major restaurant segment where IFMA projects a decline of 0.7%.
On-Site Segment
Collectively, on-site segments in 2024 are projected to grow 2%, largely because their recovery from 2020 was slower than that of restaurants. The college & university and lodging segments are expected to lead on-site growth at 2.0% and 2.8%, respectively.
The business and industry segment continues its slow recovery, although overall volume is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
IFMA has revised its overall 2024 price inflation rates down from 5.0% in February to 3.8%, reflecting a slowdown in costs of goods sold by FAFH operators.
The IFMA forecast models were created in conjunction with Datassential, a leading foodservice research firm, and validated by operators from the five IFMA Foodservice Leadership Councils.