Consumer Edge: New data reveals major shifts in U.S. general merchandise spending
Consumers have altered their spending behavior in response to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, signaling a widespread realignment in how and where Americans shop.
Retailers face mounting pricing pressure as consumers adjust their spending habits, and value becomes a universal priority, according to a new report from Consumer Edge. The report, which analyzes data from 2024 to 2025, highlights how tariff uncertainty and other challenges are shifting consumer behavior and, for specific demographics, pushing shoppers toward more accessible, lower-cost retailers.
The study finds high-income and young shoppers are both trading down. Walmart and Dollar General saw more new customers from the $150K-plus income bracket and 18-to-34 age group, signaling broader value-seeking behavior.
[READ MORE: Survey: Consumers eye buy now, pay later options in face of tariffs]
Other highlights from the study are below.
- Dollar stores and Amazon both gaining momentum Dollar Tree and Five Below posted double-digit growth since mid-April 2025, while Amazon maintained steady high single-digit gains and remains the dominant U.S. e-commerce player.
- Warehouse growth slows Growth slowed from elevated levels at warehouse clubs such as Costco, BJ's and Sam's Club as consumers pulled back on bulk purchases after a stock-up driven boost.
- Target's new customer mix skews older and lower-income Unlike Walmart, Target's new customer growth is driven by lower-income shoppers, suggesting it may be losing appeal among higher-income consumers managing discretionary spend. Its once-strong "cheap chic" image may no longer resonate with younger, trend-conscious buyers.
- Geographic shifts Dollar stores and discount chains remain dominant in rural areas with continued expansion, while urban consumers lean toward warehouse clubs and e-commerce. However, Amazon's rapid delivery rollout could blur that divide.
- Retention trends Deep brand loyalty contributes to Amazon, Walmart and Costco's strong customer retention rates. Meanwhile, dollar stores maintain lower retention rates, as their value-driven, transactional model attracts more occasional and price-sensitive shoppers.
“Consumers are making deliberate choices as they navigate the impacts of inflation and broader economic uncertainty," said Michael Gunther, VP, head of insights, at Consumer Edge, a data and insights-as-a-service company specializing in the global consumer, B2B, and healthcare economies "This shift isn't just about cutting back — it's about redefining value. We're seeing even affluent and younger shoppers prioritize convenience and cost in ways we haven't seen before."
