Consumer Attitudes & Behavior

Yet another holiday forecast brings more good cheer to retailers.   Consumers plan to spend an average of $636 on holiday-related expenses, up 3% from what they anticipated last year, according to The NPD Group’s 2016 Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey. They are also less concerned this year about the economy spoiling their holiday fun. When asked how the state of the economy will influence holiday purchases in 2016, the 12% who said it will have a “significant impact” is down from recent years (14% in 2015, 19% in 2014).

L Brands, operator of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works, posted a better-than-expected 3% increase in same-store sales for September.      The retailer’s results were fueled by a 9% increase in comp sales at its Bath & Body Works brand. L Brands’ net sales rose 6% to $919.9 million in September.   The handful of other retailers who still report same-store sales did not fare so well.  

Move over Black Friday.   The biggest shopping day in terms of holiday sales is expected to be Friday, Dec. 23, while the biggest day in terms of store traffic is expected to be Saturday, Dec. 17, according to RetailNext Inc. (See lists at end of story.) It’s the first time in many years that Black Friday failed to top either of the lists.    

Physical stores still play a crucial role in holiday shopping.    That’s one of the major themes of the International Council of Shopping Centers’ annual holiday forecast, which emphasizes that, more than ever before, shoppers will expect an omnichannel experience this season. The report predicts 3.3% year-over-year growth sales at physical stores this holiday season (compared to 2.2% increase in 2015). Including online sales for physical retailers, ICSC predicts sales will rise 3.5%.     

Consumers’ lack of enthusiasm around the value of chip card usage could impact the upcoming holiday season. This month marks the year anniversary of the introduction of mandated Europay, MasterCard, Visa (EMV) chip card payments at retail stores across the United States. However, high levels of consumer frustration and confusion remain widespread, according to new research published by Cayan, a payment technology provider.

In the strongest forecast so far this year, holiday spending is expected to reach its highest point since the Great Recession, led by strong digital sales.   That’s according to PwC’s 2016 Holiday Outlook, which forecasts a 10% total rise in holiday spending over last year, and a 25% rise in digital sales.    “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season,” said Steven Barr, PwC’s U.S. retail & consumer leader. 

Two major retail organizations delivered some early holiday cheer to retailers.   The National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers issued their annual holiday forecasts on Tuesday, and both predicted holiday shoppers will spend more this year than they did last year.   

In its new study of retail bankruptcies, Fitch Ratings identified seven retailers as being “at risk” for filing bankruptcy in the next year to 24 months.