Personal Finance

One of the first holiday quarter sales forecasts is out of the gate.   Global retail consulting firm Kantar Retail predicts that U.S. retail sales will grow 3.7% in the fourth quarter of this year. The forecast represents an improvement relative to weak growth of only 2.9% in the year ago period. But it is underwhelming compared to average growth prior to the recession of 5.0%, according to Kantar.   

Consumer confidence increased in August to the second highest level since late 2000.    The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 122.9 in August, up from 120 in the prior month. Economists had expected the index to rise to 122.5 in August.    The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2. The Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0.  

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since January in early August, reflecting optimism in the overall economy and in personal financial prospects.     The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 97.6 in the first half of August from 93.4 in July, which was an eight-month low.  Economists estimated the index would hit 94 in August.   

There is an endless list of adjectives to describe the first six-months of the Trump administration. But one modifier is both accurate and acceptable — and that word is unpredictable.   For context, the first six months of the Obama and Bush administrations were fairly predictable. Both embarked on a legislative agenda that looked and felt a lot like their campaign platforms and while the legislative process for both was rocky, we knew what we were in for. Not so much this time around.  

The unemployment rate has hit a new, but welcomed milestone.   The U.S. unemployment rate is now 4.3%. This is the lowest it's been since 2001.    However,  job gains missed the mark by a wide margin. The economy only added 138,000 jobs last month, missing the 185,000 mark expected by analysts. Job gains have occurred with an average monthly gain of 181,000 over the past 12 months.  

The National Retail Federation continues to lead the charge against the consumption tax and the proposed border adjustment tax.   The NRF on Thursday today urged Congress to focus on updating the existing federal income tax system rather than moving toward a consumption tax. Under either approach, Congress should reject a proposed $1 trillion border adjustment tax that would drive up prices for consumers and cost the economy jobs, NRF said.  

Apple may be the next company to provide a money-transfer service.   Sources said Apple has recently held discussions with payments industry partners about introducing a program that would allow iPhone owners to send money to each other digitally, according to ReCode.   If Apple’s plan pans out, its service will rival offerings from big U.S. banks, as well as PayPal, its millennial-popular subsidiary Venmo, and Square Cash, the report said.  

With healthcare reform appearing to be placed on the back burner – at least for now – attention in Washington, D.C. is turning to corporate tax reform. Corporate tax reform is much sticker issue and many of the political dynamics that doomed the healthcare effort seem to be falling into place in much the same way in this conversation. And that could be a real problem for retail operators.