Forecast: Holiday sales to be impacted by ‘lackluster’ wage growth

One of the first holiday quarter sales forecasts is out of the gate.



Global retail consulting firm Kantar Retail predicts that U.S. retail sales will grow 3.7% in the fourth quarter of this year. The forecast represents an improvement relative to weak growth of only 2.9% in the year ago period. But it is underwhelming compared to average growth prior to the recession of 5.0%, according to Kantar.



Kantar expects online sales growth of 16% and brick-and-mortar growth of 1.5% in the holiday quarter. Both are an improvement from 14% and 0.5% in the year-ago period.



“Lackluster wage growth will once again hamper holiday sales growth," said Doug Hermanson, principal economist with Kantar Retail. “Shoppers that have benefited from the surging housing and stock markets will be the bright spots for retailers this holiday. The prospects of government spending cuts and lower taxes in 2018 should also be noted given they could further divide the spending plans of holiday shoppers.”