Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time
An early 2026 holiday forecast has mostly good news for retailers.
U.S. retail sales during the upcoming November-December holiday season are poised to set a new record with 4.5% year-over-year growth driving total sales to more than $1 trillion for the first time, according to the Bain & Company 2026 holiday forecast. The increase is well ahead of the 3.5% year-over-year rise recorded in 2025 holiday sales.
[READ MORE: Survey: Despite having a strategy, many shoppers still overspent on the holidays]
However, Bain noted that more than half of the nominal sales growth will come from higher inflation, which pushes up prices for consumers. Sales in some retail categories will remain flat according to Bain analysis, including furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage. General merchandise, clothing and accessories, and e-commerce are expected to see both price and unit growth.
In-store drives sales, non-store drives growth
Although Bain predicts in-store sales will drive 70% of total holiday revenue, most new growth is expected to come from non-store sales. Based on a Bain Consumer Lab survey of more than 1,100 consumers, non-store retail sales will grow 9% year-over-year, accelerating compared with 7% year-over-year growth in 2025 and generating 60% of overall sales growth, up from 50% in 2025
Growth in in-store sales is expected by Bain to remain in line with 2025 at 2.5% year-over-year, with the strongest performance predicted to come from the clothing and accessories segment, as well as from health and personal care products. Consumer survey respondents said they expect clothing (43%) to overtake groceries (37%) as their highest-spending category in the holiday season, with gift cards (36%) coming a close third.
AI trends
More online shoppers plan to start the coming season's holiday shopping experience on AI platforms such as Claude, Google Gemini and ChatGPT (24% this year, up from 17% in 2025), as well as on retail and brand websites (60%, up from 51% in 2025), where an additional 13% plan to use retailer AI agents.
Four key tactics for winning retailers in this holiday season
Bain recommends four key tactics it says retailers should deploy to outperform during the forthcoming holiday shopping season:
Get in the zone on price: As price sensitivity returns to the forefront of purchase decisions, AI-enabled comparison makes gaps easier to spot.
Emphasize assortment that can't be cross-shopped or price-matched line for line.
Win the big shopping days: Black Friday, Cyber Monday and October promotional events with around 90% of shoppers planning to spend in at least one major retail sale event this holiday season, through personalized promotions and special events.
Invest in the customer experience and use AI to bolster it: Emotional stakes for consumers are high during the holidays and a bad experience will impact 2027 shopping behavior.
"While U.S. retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines," said Aaron Cheris, partner at Bain & Company and global head of the firm's retail practice. "The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions and making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors."
Bain & Company will publish a series of retail; holiday updates through January 2027.
