Adobe: U.S. online holiday spend to shatter records at $240.8 billion
Adobe is predicting strong growth will push holiday e-commerce to new heights.
U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $240.8 billion online this holiday shopping season, according to the Adobe online shopping forecast for the 2024 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31) and based on Adobe Analytics data. The figure is an all-time high and represents 8.4% growth year-over-year from the 2023 holiday season, when shoppers spent $221.8 billion online (4.9% year-over-year growth).
[READ MORE: Adobe: Online holiday spending hits record-breaking $222 billion]
Adobe also expects holiday shopping on mobile devices to hit a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% year-over-year, capturing a 53.2% year-over-year share of online spend compared to desktop shopping.
Cyber Week online spend to break $40 billion
Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7% year-over-year and representing 16.9% of the overall holiday season. Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1% year.
Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% year-over-year) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in annual growth as U.S. retailers promote earlier holiday deals.
Other findings
Adobe forecasts that half of online spend this holiday season will be driven by electronics ($55.1 billion, up 8.5% year-over-year), apparel ($43.9 billion, up 5.8% year-over-year) and furniture/bedding ($28.4 billion, up 4.2% year-over-year).
•Groceries are expected to drive $20.8 billion (up 8.8% year-over-year) while cosmetics will produce $10.3 billion (up 7.3% year-over-year). Other notable growth categories Adobe predicts for the holiday season include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% year-over-year) and sporting goods ($7.2 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year)
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is expected to set new records this season, driving $18.5 billion in online spend, up 11.4% year-over-year. Adobe expects BNPL online spending to hit $9.5 billion during the month of November 2024, making it the largest month on record; Cyber Monday is set to be BNPL’s largest day on record at $993 million. Adobe analysis indicates that BNPL is predominantly driven by mobile shopping, with its share of spend expected to hit 74% to 79% (vs. desktop), standing at 74.1% of BNPL purchases conducted from Jan. 1 – Aug. 11, 2024.
•Four-in-10 (39%) millennials surveyed by Adobe plan to use BNPL services this holiday season, followed by 38% of Gen Z respondents. Most common reasons cited for using BNPL include freeing-up cash (22% of respondents) and the ability to purchase something they couldn’t afford otherwise (19%).
- Use of generative AI tools for shopping is expected to rise this holiday season. Adobe survey data shows that seven in 10 consumers who have used generative AI for shopping believe it enhances their experience, and two in five plan to use it for the holidays.
Based on Adobe Analytics data, the holiday forecast analyzes commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.
