Adobe: U.S. online holiday sales will smash records to reach $275B
A strong Cyber Week is expected to help drive substantial 7% year-over-year growth in U.S. online shopping this holiday season.
Between Nov. 1 - Dec. 31, 2026, Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion, growing 6.7% year over year from $257.8 billion during the same period in 2025. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis forecasts Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) will drive $47.5 billion online (up 7.4% year over year, similar to Cyber Week 2025 year-over-year growth), representing 17.3% of full holiday season online spend.
[READ MORE: Cyber Monday, Cyber Week online sales up roughly 7%]
Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) is expected to set a new milestone for U.S. e-commerce, with consumers spending $15.1 billion online in a single day (up 6.2% year over year). Adobe expects the second-biggest online shopping day of the season will be Black Friday ($12.9 billion, up 9.2% year over year), which is growing at a faster rate than Cyber Monday, driven in part by what Adobe says is having the biggest discounts for categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances.
Thanksgiving is predicted to drive $6.9 billion in digital spending (up 8.5% year over year), bolstered by impulse shopping. A record 63% of Cyber Week online spend is set to come through mobile devices (up from 61.6% in 2025), outpacing the full season where mobile will account for 57.4% of overall spend (up from 56.4% in 2025).
Other Adobe predictions for the 2026 digital holiday shopping season include:
Busy October
Adobe expects $95.8 billion will be spent online in October, up a notable 8% year-over-year. Nearly $10 billion is expected to be spent during the Amazon Prime Big Deal Days event Oct. 6-7 ($9.9 billion, up 9.2% year over year), driven in part by discounts that are set to peak at 19% off listed price.
According to Adobe, Prime Big Deal Days and competing events from other retailers have changed how retailers manage the holiday season, tailoring promotions and inventory to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest.
Artificial intelligence soars
Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites this holiday season (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) to rise 130% year-over-year. The biggest uptick is expected on Thanksgiving (up 159% year over year), followed by Black Friday (up 95% year over year) and Cyber Monday (up 88% year over year).
Buy now, pay later keeps growing
The flexible buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment method is expected to drive $21.3 billion, up 6.6% year over year. Usage is set to spike on Cyber Monday, where BNPL is expected to account for $1.09 billion in online spend, marking the second consecutive year where more than $1 billion will be driven by BNPL on Cyber Monday.
On Black Friday, BNPL is set to drive $807 million in online spend. Most of BNPL spend is forecast to occur through mobile devices (82% share vs. desktop).
Social media and affiliates drive purchases
Affiliates/partners (which includes social influencers) and social media overall are set to see the biggest gains in share of revenue, up 12% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, paid search is expected to rise by 4%. Within the affiliates/partner category, cashback and rewards partners leads in affiliate traffic with a 36% share, followed by influencers and creators at 22%.
Popular categories
Of the full holiday season spend, electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9% year over year) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7% year over year) are expected remain tentpole categories in e-commerce, but Adobe also expects stronger growth in furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3% year over year), grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3% year-over-year), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6% year-over-year and cosmetics ($9.2 billion, 9.5% year over year).
Discount patterns
Adobe expects competitive discounts this holiday season, including up to 30% off listed price during Cyber Week. Shoppers will see deals throughout the season, up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and up to 10-15% throughout December.
Across categories, deals are predicted to be on par with the 2025 season, including electronics, expected to peak at 30% off listed price (vs. 30.1% in 2025); toys at 29% (vs. 28%); TVs at 23% (vs. 24.2%); computers at 23% (vs. 22.8%); apparel at 23% (vs. 23.2%); sporting goods at 19% (vs. 19.5%); appliances at 18% (vs. 19.2%); and furniture at 18% (vs. 19%).
Adobe’s forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe CX Enterprise.
