2026 holiday hiring outlook

The hiring outlook in the U.S. reflects a shift from the expansion seen in recent years toward a more cautious and uneven global market.

These changes signal a recalibration following the stronger conditions of recent years. Organizations now balancing budgetary caution and long-term talent needs in an environment shaped increasingly by economic uncertainty, the changing nature of work and high applicant volumes.

The holiday season brings a surge in demand as companies prepare to move, store and deliver goods ahead of peak holiday shopping. Companies are still ramping up their seasonal holiday hiring this year to meet this demand, despite a flat/slowing hiring market more broadly.

Challenges

The challenge isn’t just attracting candidates. It’s reviewing, qualifying, and scheduling large volumes of applicants quickly enough to secure talent before competitors do (often without adding recruiting headcount). Manual screening and disconnected systems create bottlenecks that can leave candidates waiting and employers short-staffed.

Mobile-first, multilingual hiring experiences, supported by AI and automation, can reduce administrative work and keep applicants engaged from application to offer. That gives recruiters more time to connect with candidates and evaluate the skills and availability needed for the role.

Retention starts with the expectations employers set during hiring. Candidates need a clear understanding of the hours, pace, responsibilities and length of the assignment.

Realistic job previews help establish those expectations, while responsive communication keeps people engaged before their first shift. Once they start, practical training, clear schedules and supportive managers can help keep them through the holiday rush. Filling a role quickly only delivers value if that person is prepared and supported to stay.

How Employers Are Using AI for Seasonal Hiring:
 
Speed is a non-negotiable with seasonal hiring, but hiring the right people with the right skills to ensure a successful holiday season is still critical.

Here are a few key ways employers are accomplishing both this season. 
 
•Structured, two-way voice interviews: As seasonal applications surge, manual phone screens quickly become a bottleneck. AI-powered hiring tools, like the AI Interviewer, give candidates the opportunity to complete a structured, two-way voice interview 24/7, without waiting for a recruiter’s calendar to open up.

The interview adapts to candidates’ responses and focuses on the skills needed for the role. Recruiters receive science-backed scores, explanations, and shortlists to help them review candidates and decide who moves forward.

Candidates get a chance to demonstrate more than a resume can show, while recruiters spend less time on repetitive screening and more time connecting with the people they may actually hire.

•Validating skills: A polished application doesn’t tell you how someone will handle a customer question or a fast-moving shift. Science-backed assessments can help teams evaluate the skills and behaviors that matter for the role.

Assessments help recruiters evaluate the skills and competencies that matter for on-the-job success in addition to measuring essential soft skills like adaptability and teamwork. Candidates complete short, role-relevant exercises connected to success on the job.

Multiple methods measure the skills, behaviors, and knowledge that matter for the role, giving hiring teams more information from a single assessment.

A “Virtual Job Tryout ” can also give candidates a clearer picture of the work while helping employers see how they might approach it, so they have clearer expectations of what to expect on day one. When hiring at volume, a consistent way to evaluate job-relevant skills helps teams make decisions with more confidence.

Simulations allow candidates to “try out” the job, while potential employers get a direct measure of relevant skills. The result is a robust measure of candidate skills and abilities to drive hiring decisions. Candidates who receive a realistic preview of the role are also more likely to stay than those who feel surprised or misled once they begin the job.

•Conversational AI: Companies can unlock candidates’ potential by matching skills with available job opportunities, so they don’t miss out on qualified talent because of tricky titles or confusing job descriptions that ultimately slow down hiring.

This ensures candidates’ skills are transferred and used to present all roles that fit their skill set, opening up more opportunities for them.

•Texting candidates: When speed is critical, your engagement and communication needs to be fast. Text recruiting can engage 4x more candidates 5x faster, with minimal effort from your hiring team. By leveraging SMS messaging, companies are messaging candidates or new hires via 1:1 communication or mass campaigns, enabling quick responses to hiring needs.

High-volume, hourly hiring processes are handling mass amounts of data, and texting allows team members to text from a secure platform, not a personal phone. With a shared inbox, privacy standard compliance, maintained records for HR and legal, giving HR, IT and legal teams peace of mind.

Considerations When Using AI to Hire Seasonal Workers

Employers should keep in mind that AI-based assessments should be rigorously evaluated just like any other assessment tool. The AI itself is not the risk, it’s how the AI is developed and deployed. Science and rigor should be bolstered through AI, not treated as secondary to speed.

AI-driven hiring software has revolutionized recruitment, but speed alone doesn’t equate to success. Ethical AI focuses on fairness, transparency, and unbiased decision-making, and your vendor should have a public commitment to regulated, ethical AI.

Here’s what to evaluate:

•Relevant to your company and goals: A responsible AI implementation considers your specific jobs and goals. Start with the problem you’re trying to solve and avoid vendors who use a one-size-fits-all approach.

•IO Science + AI: Hiring tech should be grounded in IO psychology, which focuses on understanding human behavior to improve employee selection and ensure an effective, fair, and ethical process. Ask for proof behind the promises and evidence of impact. 

•Compliance + Regulations: With the increasing adoption of AI, there’s growing concern about bias, privacy, and transparency. Employers should be aware of relevant laws and regulations, and ensure their vendors incorporate those into their products and processes. 

•Data Security + Privacy: Vendors should ensure that robust security measures and privacy protections are in place. Not only does it safeguard information and uphold ethical standards, but it also complies with regulations like GDPR and CCPA.

•Transparency + Fairness: AI companies should have transparent explainable processes, provide 3rd party audit results, and have an AI “Explainability Statement” to demonstrate fairness.