Survey: Holiday shoppers to start early, seek value, go mobile-first
The upcoming holiday season will be marked by early shopping, value-seeking behavior and the dominance of big-box stores and smartphone shopping.
The majority (65.7%) of consumers expect to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 39.8% plan to begin by the end of October, according to a survey by digital marketing agency Adtaxi. Holiday shopping will be done against an inflation backdrop, with 59% of consumers saying higher prices are likely to influence holiday spending decisions.
The two largest mindsets consumers report having are seeking the lowest prices (35%) and staying within budget without sacrificing important purchases (27%). Only 9% describe a higher-spend or splurge mindset.
One of the report’s key findings is the overlap between discovery and purchase. Big box leads expected purchasing at 67% and gift discovery at 53.4%; online marketplaces follow at 63% and 51.1% Social commerce reverses the pattern, with higher use for discovery (16%) versus expected purchasing (10%).
The survey found that the smartphone is the dominant interface for digital purchases. At 80.7%, smartphone use is far ahead of laptop (48%), tablet (30%) and desktop (24%) for purchasing.
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“Consumers are disciplined, but not disengaged,” says Adtaxi director of research Murry Woronoff. “The 2026 holiday advantage will not come from simply spending more advertising dollars. It will come from entering earlier, finding the consumers with the greatest incremental potential, making value relevant to them and removing friction between discovery and purchase.”
Other highlights from Adtaxi’s 2026 Holiday & Ecommerce Survey are below,
•Consumers ages 30 to 44 and 45 to 60 are the earliest groups of holiday shoppers, while younger consumers (18 to 29) are more likely to wait.
•Compared to 2025, 38.5% expect to spend more and 38.2% expect to spend about the same this year versus 23.3% who expect to spend less.
•Consumers are spread out across product categories: Clothing has the strongest net positive spread (52% of consumers reporting they’ll spend more vs. 34% report they’ll spend less on clothes), while electronics (37% more vs. 41% less), toys (31% vs. 33%), home furnishings (21% vs. 25%), and jewelry (15% vs. 24%) show more pressure.
•Half of consumers have already used AI for shopping or purchase decisions, but adoption is highly uneven. The leading uses are product research (43%), comparison (39%), ideas (35%) and deal finding (33%).
•Only 2.3% rank AI recommendations among top brand-choice influences.
•Among low household income consumers, 54.4% cite wages and 42.2% cite their personal financial situation as concerns that determine purchase decisions.
•Among high household income consumers, inflation remains a great concern at 60.0% while personal-finance pressure falls to 31.8%. The distinction between the two groups matters, according to the study, as one audience needs affordability and budget control; another needs evidence that the product is worth the price.
“The 2026 holiday season is not about whether consumers will spend; rather, it is about where growth exists, when those consumers enter the market, and what ultimately earns their purchase,” said Woronoff. “Holiday shoppers are prepared to spend, but spending intent alone understates the challenge. Consumers are entering earlier, comparing more aggressively and evaluating every purchase against price, quality, convenience and confidence. A broad retreat from spending doesn't define the season; selective spending does.”
Methodology
This survey was conducted online using SurveyMonkey among a national sample of 1,029 adults across U.S. geographic regions, income levels, genders, and ages. The survey was conducted on Aug. 25.
