Study forecasts big turnout for Amazon’s Prime holiday sales event

The Prime Early Access Sale is shaping up as a good idea for Amazon.

Amazon will debut its Prime Early Access Sale, a new two-day global shopping event exclusive to Prime members, Oct. 11-12, across 15 countries including the U.S. This marks the first year Amazon is essentially hosting two full-blown versions of its members-only Prime Day promotion.

According to new research from data and technology company Numerator, nearly one in three surveyed U.S. consumers will shop the new Prime sale, on target with the 29.9% of consumers who shopped the July 2022 Prime Day event.

[Read more: Prime Day update: Discounting produces record results]

Numerator analysis also indicates average household spend will likely pass the $200 mark for an Amazon Prime sales promotion for the first time. Household spend grew to $197.92 during Prime Day 2022, up from $156.69 on Prime Day 2021.

Prime Day 2020, which was held in October 2020, saw higher household spend at $158.55, which Numerator says was likely a result of its pre-holiday timing. Between the potential for capturing early holiday spend, and higher prices due to inflation, Numerator predicts average household spend is likely to surpass $200 at the Prime Early Access Sale.

Other Numerator predictions and findings relating to Prime Early Access Sale and Prime Day include:

• Consumers will start their holiday shopping, but it’s not likely to cannibalize Amazon’s holiday traffic. During the Fall 2020 Prime Day sale, 29% of surveyed consumers said they used the event for holiday shopping, while 90% planned to shop on Amazon again in advance of the holidays.
• Prime Day is increasingly a consumer goods holiday. During Prime Day 2022, 17% of surveyed shoppers bought groceries, and household and grocery items landed in the top items purchased for the first time. If deals are available, Numerator expects consumers are likely to stock up on Halloween candy, Thanksgiving non-perishables, and holiday baking ingredients. 
• Amazon’s CPG share skyrockets 4-5x on Prime Day every year. In 2022, Numesator analysis indicates Amazon’s CPG share was 4.9% in the month before Prime Day, 5.6% the month of Prime Day, and 21.7% on Prime Day itself – accounting for more than $1 in every $5 of U.S. consumer goods spend. According to Numerator, day-of CPG share continues to grow with each subsequent Prime Day (19.1% on Prime Day 2021 and 18.3% on Prime Day 2020).
• Prime Day pulls share from most of Amazon’s competitors. On Prime Day 2022, Numerator tracked smaller retailers collectively experiencing an -11.8-point month-over-month CPG share decline. Walmart saw a total store decline of -3 points, followed by Kroger (-1.5 points) and Costco (-1 point). However, Target, which was running its Deal Days event at the same time, saw a modest share boost of +0.5 points on Prime Day.

Chief Amazon rivals Walmart and Target are also both running October holiday sales events for all shoppers in an effort to better compete with Amazon for early holiday sales. All three retail giants are making an early push amid what many experts are predicting will be a modest holiday season. Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast predicts that year-over-year holiday sales will increase 4% to 6%. By comparison, sales grew 15.1% in 2021.

Numerator TruView omnichannel share data is sourced from the 1 million-plus household Numerator Measurement Panel. Click here for more information.