Retailers advised to bring cargo in early as potential port strike, tariffs loom
The new year may bring another strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports.
Talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, leaving the potential for a strike after the current contract extension reached after a three-day strike in October expires Jan. 15, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
At the same time, retailers face the possibility of a wide range of tariffs once president-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can, noted NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold.
“We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy,” Gold said. “We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
With a strike possible again next month at East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports and President-elect Trump planning to increase tariffs, the nation’s major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports through next spring.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said retailers are under pressure as they frontload cargo to avoid both the disruption of the strike and higher costs from the tariffs.
“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said, referring to the port labor contract. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing.”
As to the issue of increased tariffs, Hackett said that is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in October, although the Port of Miami has yet to report final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported November’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year-over-year. December is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% year-over-year. That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023. Before the October strike and November’s elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
January 2025 is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, up 12% year-over-year; February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories; March at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%, and April at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
