NRF: Retailers ‘well stocked’ for upcoming holiday season amid new tariffs
Retailers brought in goods ahead of new tariffs that went into effect last month, leading to an early peak season for import cargo.
That’s according to the Global Port Tracker report released Friday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. With the 2026 peak shipping season starting to wind down, import volume at the nation’s major container ports expected to remain high this month before starting to decline for the remainder of 2026.
Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expired on July 23, but a new round of 10% to 12.5% Section 301 tariffs regarding forced labor covering 60 economies and affecting 99% of U.S. imports took effect the next day.
[READ MORE: Trump imposes new tariffs on 60 countries]
“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” said NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.23 million twenty-foot equivalent units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in June, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 13.2% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, but down 0.7% from May. The first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
Ports have not yet reported July numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.21 million TEU, down 7.6% year over year.
August is forecast at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2% year over year. Imports are expected to decline steadily each month for most of the rest of the year, although volumes will be above 2025. September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 2.8% year over year; October at 2.13 million TEU, up 2.7% year over year; November at 2.03 million TEU, up 0.3% year over year; and December should pick up slightly at 2.06 million TEU, up 2.5% over last year.
While ports have remained busy this summer and spread out the peak season, this year’s busiest month appears to have arrived in May, when they handled 2.24 million TEU. The peak shipping season, which historically came in late summer or fall, has become earlier and smoother in recent years amid reasons ranging from supply chain disruptions to expected tariff increases.
While a whole-year total is still pending, 2026 is expected to total 25.5 million TEU, up 0.1% from last year. Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
