NRF: Shoplifting declines but fraud schemes evolve
There’s good and bad news for retailers in a new study on retail theft.
Retail store theft levels are stabilizing, but external theft and fraud overall continue to rise, according to “The Impact of Theft & Violence 2026” report released by the National Retail Federation and the Loss Prevention Research Council, and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions. The findings highlight the evolving nature of organized retail criminals exploiting both the physical and digital retail environments,
Retailers experienced a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024, the report found. But the decreases came as other methods of external theft, fraud and scams increased over the same period.
The 2026 report reflects a concerning shift as criminals move beyond traditional shoplifting to more sophisticated external theft schemes. Retailers reported higher rates of repeat offenders (50%), ORC-related incidents (40%) and walkout or pushout theft (37%). Fraud is also rising, with phone scams (69%), loyalty fraud (51%) and gift card theft or fraud (42%) increasing.
Consistent with last year, reports of store-related theft incidents to law enforcement remain low, with 63% of retailers reporting fewer than half of these incidents. Retailers cite several factors for not reporting, including low-dollar losses or not meeting felony thresholds (60%), as well as concerns about lack of law enforcement response and follow-through (54%).
Violence
Violence remains a significant concern for retailers, which continue to report increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents. In response, retailers are strengthening proactive workplace violence prevention efforts by investing in management training (72%), employee training (65%) and risk-intelligence technologies (61%), among other measures designed to enhance safety for employees and customers.
"After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes,” said NRF VP for asset protection and retail operations David Johnston. “However, significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud.”
Methodology
The 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence survey was conducted online among senior loss prevention and security executives in the retail industry from February to April 2026. A total of 66 retail companies responded to the survey, representing 143 brands across a variety of retail sectors.
These brands represented $1.7 trillion in annual sales for their 2025 fiscal year or 31.6% of total retail sales. The majority (63%) have more than 10,000 employees, and more than one-third (38%) operate at least 1,000 stores. View the full study here.
