NRF: Holiday sales expected to top $1 trillion for first time in 2025
U.S. holiday sales are expected to hit a new record amid higher prices and resilient consumers.
Retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024, which translates to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual holiday forecast. By comparison, holiday sales last year rose 4.3% over 2023 to $976.1 billion. )NRF’s forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.)
The NRF said it remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in non-essential categories as they spend on gifts.
“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation,” said NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Mathews. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
Holiday Hiring
In other holiday findings, NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, in line with a slower-paced labor market. That's.a big drop the 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024. It's also he lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the NRF said on its conference call.
Mathews said that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Because of the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season, he said.
“A notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, the timing of which is particularly challenging just before the holiday season,” stated NRF. “Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.”
In September, NRF released a survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics which found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
For more information, visit NRF’s Winter Holiday FAQ and Winter Holiday Headquarters.
