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NRF: Consumer returns will exceed $800 billion in 2022

Overall, returns are stabilizing in 2022.

Merchandise returns are showing trends that retailers should like.

New data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Appriss Retail, consumers are expected to return more than $816 billion worth of retail merchandise purchased in 2022. However, as retail sales continue to grow, the average rate of return has remained flat at 16.5%, compared with 16.6% in 2021.

In addition, for the first time since online data has been captured as part of the survey in 2019, online return rates are consistent with the overall rate of return. Online return rates decreased from 20.8% in 2021 to 16.5% in 2022.

According to NRF data, online sales will account for approximately $1.29 trillion of total U.S. retail sales in 2022. Of the approximately $212 billion of returned online purchases, $22.8 billion (10.7%) are expected to be fraudulent.

Of the more than $3.66 trillion in expected in-store sales, $603 billion will be returned. Approximately $62.1 billion of those returns, or 10.3%, are expected to be fraudulent.

Holiday returns will surpass $170 billion

According to the report, in terms of holiday sales, retailers can expect to see an average of 17.9% of merchandise returned, equating to nearly $171 billion. Because of the increased sales volume during this time of year, nearly 44% of survey respondents indicated they planned to hire more staff to handle returns during the holiday season. Of that cohort, most (71%) intend to add staff specifically for stores.

Return fraud poses challenge

Additionally, the report indicates that for every $100 in returned merchandise accepted, retailers lose $10.40 to return fraud. Of the types of return fraud surveyed retailers say they have experienced in the past year, half (50%) cited returns of used, non-defective merchandise, also known as wardrobing, and 41.4% cited the return of shoplifted or stolen merchandise. One-fifth (20%) attributed return fraud to organized retail crime.

[Read more: NRF: Retail shrink nears $100 billion; ORC a top challenge]

“The holidays typically include a spike in retail activity, but higher return rates can also impact profitability,” said Steve Prebble, CEO of Appriss Retail. “Retailers must look for ways to individualize the returns process through data-driven insights. This will minimize the risk of accepting fraudulent returns while enhancing the customer experience for loyal shoppers.”

NRF has forecast that total retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% to more than $4.86 trillion in 2022. Consistent with that analysis, the organization also expects holiday retail sales during November and December to grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to more than $942.6 billion despite inflationary challenges.

The survey of 70 retailers was conducted by NRF and Appriss Retail from Sept. 19 through Oct. 14, 2022.

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