SHOPPING OUTLOOK
Last year the weather was perfect for all outdoor activities associated with Father’s Day and graduation parties (June 10 to 16) as a surge of summer heat and dry weather spread across the nation. Unfortunately, the confluence of near perfect weather and a holiday weekend is not likely to repeat again this year as a wholesale change toward much wetter weather for the week leading up to the holiday will act to dampen the mood.
Seasonal categories like suncare and picnic supplies will see more sluggish demand this year as wetter weather will certainly have a negative impact on warm seasonal categories and holiday items.
One of the few drier places this year will be across the Southeast. A land-falling tropical system brought a washout last year but this year should be much drier, offsetting the negatives of the increased rainfall elsewhere, but outside of this region, 75% of the country trends wetter than last year.
The following forecasts from Weather Trends International are based on a statistical methodology using 110 years of weather records. Weather Trends forecasts are created 11 months in advance and are intended to identify weather trends. The forecast accuracy averages 75% or better by week and by market. For more information, contact Jack Grum (610) 807-3586 or visit www.wxtrends.com.
FORECAST BY RETAIL MARKETCity | | AVERAGE (30 YEARS) | LAST YEAR (ACTUAL) | THIS YEAR (FORECAST) |
Boston | TEMP | 68° | 68° | 66° |
| PRECIP | 0.77” | 0.10” | 1.13” |
New York | TEMP | 72° | 73° | 75° |
| PRECIP | 0.80” | 0.06” | 1.20” |
Atlanta | TEMP | 77° | 77° | 78° |
| PRECIP | 0.81” | 0.20” | 1.01” |
Orlando | TEMP | 81° | 81° | 83° |
| PRECIP | 1.80” | 3.35” | 1.35” |
Dallas | TEMP | 81° | 85° | 80° |
| PRECIP | 0.73” | 0.31” | 0.91” |
Chicago | TEMP | 69° | 69° | 71° |
| PRECIP | 0.87” | 0.04” | 1.09” |
Minneapolis | TEMP | 68° | 71° | 66° |
| PRECIP | 1.05” | 1.24” | 0.93” |
Denver | TEMP | 68° | 73° | 69° |
| PRECIP | 0.36” | 0.06” | 0.64” |
Phoenix | TEMP | 89° | 92° | 87° |
| PRECIP | 0.00” | 0.00” | 0.00” |
Los Angeles | TEMP | 66° | 69° | 65° |
| PRECIP | 0.00” | 0.00” | 0.00” |
San Francisco | TEMP | 62° | 63° | 62° |
| PRECIP | 0.00” | 0.01” | 0.00” |
Seattle | TEMP | 61° | 61° | 60° |
| PRECIP | 0.35” | 0.29” | 0.46” |
Text and chart by Weather Trends International