Predictive Analytics

Economists may be feeling good after a government report that showed third-quarter GDP grew at 2.5%, but try telling millions of Americans who shop at Walmart stores at 12:01 a.m. on the first of the month that the nation is no longer in a recession.

Armonk, N.Y. -- Online holiday shopping in November is expected to grow 12% to 15% versus the year-ago period, with mobile devices such as iPads and Android phones helping to drive spending, according to the IBM Coremetrics Benchmark analysis which gathers data directly from the websites of more than 500 leading U.S. retailers. The analysis also predicts that 15% of people in the United States who log onto a retailer’s website during November will do so through a mobile device.

Seattle -- Starbucks Corp.’s fiscal fourth-quarter profit jumped nearly 29%, beating Wall Street estimates on strong sales around the globe. The company earned $358.5 million in the quarter, up from $278.9 million last year. Revenue rose 7% to $3 billion, with some benefit from foreign exchange rates. Same-store sales increased 9%, with a 10% rise in the United States.

Chelmsford, Mass. -- The Kronos Retail Labor Index edged down to 3.8% in October 2011, following an upwardly revised 4.2% for September, which was the first reading above 4% since October 2008. Even with the small decline in October, the Retail labor Index remains well above the series low of 2.8% in January 2011.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Retail Inflation, a strong fuelperks! rewards program and increased sales at remodeled stores helped grow identical-store sales at Winn-Dixie Stores by 3.3% during the first quarter of fiscal 2012. This increase was also aided by a 5.5% increase in basket size, but partially offset by a 2.1% decrease in transaction count. The company announced that net sales for the first quarter were $1.6 billion, an increase of $48.2 million or 3.1% compared with the same period in the prior fiscal year. 

The latest pricing studying from Deutsche Bank analyst Charles Grom shows a basket of 50 items is still cheaper at Walmart than Target, but by a slimmer margin than in the past.

New York City -- A report released Friday by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan found that consumer confidence in the United States rose unexpectedly in October, a signal that an economic recovery process may still be intact.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 60.9 from 59.4 in September, beating Bloomberg News economists’ projections of a drop to 58.

The preliminary reading for the month was 57.5.

Citigroup found that toy prices at both Walmart and Target fell by 4% and that the price gap between the two retailers on toys has narrowed since its first survey.

According to Ciitgroup, retail prices of a basket of “hot” toys for holiday 2011 are now 30 bps cheaper at Walmart than at Target, compared with 50 bps cheaper at Walmart in its previous survey. However, taking into account Target’s 5% rewards discount, the basket of toys became 470 bps more expensive at Walmart, compared with 450 bps more expensive in the previous survey.