Early indicators suggest seasonal hiring will be down from last year
Retailers are expected to hire fewer seasonal workers again this year as they continue to lean on existing staff, automation and other resources.
Seasonal retail hiring is expected to fall below last year’s level to 450,000 jobs added during the fourth quarter of the year, predicts Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The outplacement and executive coaching firm noted that only a handful of companies have announced their 2026 seasonal headcount plans so far.
Although consumers appear to be spending despite high prices, a pattern of quieter hiring announcements suggests retailers are again planning to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than committing to large seasonal waves this early.
“August retail sales jumped 1.2%, and there's no sign of a major spending pullback,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “But that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest retailers."
With prices still high and tariffs continuing to work through supply chains, retailers are leaning on automation, existing associates and on-demand pools before hiring net-new seasonal workers, he added.
“It's more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021," Challenger said.
Retailers added 461,500 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2025, the smallest seasonal gain since 2008 and 15% below the 543,100 added in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the firm’s analysis of non-seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Preliminary figures from the BLS show that retail employed 15.47 million workers in August 2026, up by just over 63,000 jobs from a year ago. Employment typically dips in September as teens and college-aged workers return to school, then rebuilds in the final quarter.
"Almost every hiring announcement we've seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook,” Challenger said. “Even if the big names come in at last year's numbers, the total will likely fall well short of the 2019–2021 peaks."
In September, Michaels said it plans to hire more than 10,000 seasonal team members, which is flat with last year. Bass Pro Shops and Cabela's are holding a National Hiring Event on Oct. 7 and 8 at locations across the U.S. and Canada.
Bath & Body Works has committed to 30,000-plus employees in each of the last three seasons and normally announces in early September. Target has held its number of hires at 100,000 for the past several years, and Kohl's hired roughly 90,000 for most of the past decade. So far, none have publicly disclosed 2026 headcount figures.
Transportation & Warehousing
Seasonal hiring in transportation and warehousing followed a similar downward path in 2025. Employers in this sector added 266,500 positions in the fourth quarter last year, down 12% from 2024 and the lowest fourth quarter total since 2018, when 259,500 jobs were added.
Challenger forecasts a similar total in 2026 as e-commerce firms and logistics providers continue to lean on automation, robotics, flexible scheduling, and year-round staff to meet fluctuating demand
"AI, robotics and automation continue to reshape the peak-season labor profile in warehousing,” said Challenger. “The traditional seasonal spike in shipping jobs has been dulled, and every year that shift looks a little more permanent.”
