Consumers worried about recession, tariffs; expect to change shopping behavior
A majority of households across the political spectrum are concerned about tariffs, a recession and stock market volatility.
That’s according to the findings of two surveys of representative U.S. households conducted by Numerator in April, both of which revealed growing unrest on the economic front. The surveys revealed that 83% consumers anticipate making changes to their shopping behaviors in preparation for new tariffs.
Nearly half (48%) of consumers said they will look for sales or coupons, followed by delaying purchases until prices stabilize buying fewer imported goods (both 32%). Thirty-one percent expect to stock up on items prior to tariff-induced price increases, and 25% say they switching to U.S.-made alternatives (25%).
In other findings, shoppers worry most about tariff-related price increases in essential categories like groceries (60%), household goods (42%) and gasoline (40%). All categories except gasoline saw increased concern from February to April, especially household goods (+8 points), automobiles (+7 points), home appliances (+7 points) and personal care products (+6 points).
[READ MORE: Total retail sales rise 1.4% in March as consumers rush to beat tariffs]
Other findings from the Numerator surveys are below.
- Nearly all (89%) of U.S. shoppers say they are aware of new or proposed tariffs, up from 83% in February 2025 and 53% in December 2024.
- 85% of consumers express concern about how tariffs will affect their personal finances and shopping behaviors, up four points from February.
- 72% of U.S. households are very or somewhat concerned about a recession occurring in the coming year. The unease is felt across the political spectrum. Even in areas of the country that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump, 63% of households are very or somewhat concerned about an upcoming recession.
- Younger and more educated U.S. households are more likely to think tariffs are bad for the U.S. economy, compared to less educated and older households.
- Regardless of the income group they belong to, the overwhelming majority of households believe tariffs are bad for the U.S. economy or are unsure — with less than one third believing tariffs will be good for the economy.
- 70% of U.S. households are very or somewhat concerned about the recent stock-market volatility. In areas that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump, the number is 60%.
- 52% of U.S. households think the economy will be worse this time next year, while 16% are unsure and just 33% think it will be better. Households in regions that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump are slightly more optimistic, with 36% believing that the economy will be worse, 15% being unsure, and 49% believing the economy will be better in one year’s time.
