Consumers continue shifting to mass-channel retailers for groceries
Mass retailers and dollar stores are gaining ground with consumers as financial insecurity continues to affect grocery purchasing decisions, with one chain clearly in the lead.
Walmart’s grocery penetration has reached a record-breaking 72%, according to Dunnhumby's latest Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) report, which analyzes the grocery spending habits and choices of consumers on a quarterly basis. (Penetration refers to the share of respondents who report having purchased groceries from a specific retailer in the past month, whether online or in-store.).
The report revealed that mass-channel retailers equaled traditional supermarkets at 79% penetration for the first time. The metric marks a “fundamental shift” in American shopping behavior, the study said. Since CTT’s debut in April 2022, mass-channel penetration has increased five percentage points.
Walmart serves over 190 million Americans monthly, which is 2.5 times the reach of second-place Dollar General at 28.6%. Walmart’s penetration rose six percentage points (pp) year over year, marking the largest growth in penetration among all retailers.
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Dollar stores have surged to 42% penetration, overtaking club stores for the first time since August 2023, with Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar each gaining four to six percentage points year over year.
Dunnhumby noted that U.S. consumers perceive food inflation to be 19.6%, more than eight times the actual rate of 2.4% in December 2025. Households with incomes under $50,000 perceive inflation at 23.6%, nearly 10 times the actual rate.
“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, president of the Americas for Dunnhumby. “What makes this different from the 2023 inflation spike is that consumer concern persists even as actual inflation moderates. The consumer is just not feeling it. Where they shop, how they use coupons, even how they adopt AI — everything aligns to saving money. When financial insecurity becomes this entrenched, grocery affordability becomes paramount, and shopping behavior doesn’t just snap back.”
Additional highlights from Wave 12 of the CTT include the following:
•Food insecurity (defined as consumers who have reduced their meal size or skipped meals due to financial hardship) affects nearly 40% of Americans ages 45–54 (the highest rate among any age group) and one-in-three families with children. Working-age adults face food insecurity at more than four times the rate of seniors over 65.
•Despite financial pressures, consumers pulled back on aggressive price-seeking behaviors during the holiday season, with shopping at low-price stores declining 2.1 pp and premium purchases dropping 1.5 pp. However, bulk buying increased by 1.3 pp, which Dunnhumby says suggests consumers selectively spent during December while maintaining long-term savings strategies through stockpiling.
•Nearly half of shoppers (47%) surveyed now redeem coupons through store loyalty programs, up 2.5 pp from Wave 11, representing the strongest behavioral shift tracked this wave. More than half (52%) actively identify themselves to claim rewards. Sixty-eight percent of shoppers seek discounts on items they buy regularly, while 62% expect stores to offer abundant promotions.
•Just 15% of U.S. consumers use AI tools for grocery shopping, with trust emerging as the primary barrier. According to CTT, 38% of respondents do not see the need for it, and 37% prefer making their own shopping decisions. U.S. consumers show significantly more distrust in AI recommendations (19%) than the broader Americas average (12%).
Dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and the United States for Wave 12 of the CTT. The online interviews took place in December 2025 and the previous wave took place in August 2025.
